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Putin invades Ukraine


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1) Things are moving at a faster speed now, however, the situation didn’t change a lot in Kharkiv in the last 24 hours.According to Derhachi’s mayor, the Russians are blocking 6 villages around the city + The Russians also launched an unsuccessful attack in the south of Izyum.

 

FQvtC02WQAIfvTe?format=jpg&name=large2) Yesterday’s reports that the Russians reached Torske might have been false as Ukrainians forces seem to have repelled Russian advancements into most of the towns in the unoccupied portion of Donbas. Kreminna, on the other hand, fell to the Russians, and so did a minor village in the north of Luhansk. The Russians seem to want to link up Izyum and Donetsk city. Perpendicular lines of advancement starting from Popasna, Severodonetsk etc intended to reach the potential Izyum-Donetsk one mean the Russians are attempting to encircle Ukrainians in smaller pockets (however, we’ve seen for how long the pockets resisted in Mariupol). Another theory is that the Russians are attempting to advance into more small axes of advancement at once to maximise their ability to encircle Ukrainian defenders. But as 9 May (Victory Day in Russia) is coming, the Russians are in hurry to secure a strategic win, so they are likely acting even more unorganised and rushed, therefore won't be able to think things so thoroughly.

FQvtlZHWYAAVLqr?format=jpg&name=4096x40963) Ukrainians recaptured Mar'inka in the west of Donetsk as Mariupol continues to resist occupation, with a clear pocket of resistance in the south of the city. There seem to be many Russian journalists here though, which could mean that Russia may set the conditions for declaring victory, even if the whole city is not completely subdued. Recent developments in Zaporizhia mean either that the Russians prepare for Ukrainian counter-attacks or plan on advancing further north. There is still fighting in the west of Kherson.

 

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⬆️(He’s the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister) United Nations secretary-general António Guterres has made a direct plea to Russian present Putin, saying: “In the name of humanity bring your troo

omg. This is so damn frustrating...war in Europe...never thought our generation would witness this. Praying for Ukraine and the people there and I am praying this is not a bloody long lasting war...go

The 2020’s decade has brought out the worst qualities in humans.  

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FQ07lXyX0AIsDZH?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 1) In the last 24 hours, the Russians had some ‘partial success’ in around Izyum, extending in various locations around the city. The Russians seem to want to reach Slovyansk and Lyaman & they unfortunately got closer to doing it.

2) In Donetsk, the Russians claim they took control of Rubizhne. However, this is really uncertain as Ukrainian forces also claimed to have it under their control relatively recently. The Russians also seem to have captured some of Severodonetsk’s suburbs. After Kreminna fell, the Russians occupied Stara Krasnyanka and fighting is taking place in Torske and Zelena Dolyna. The Russians also captured some parts of Popasna city.

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3)  Russia declared victory in Mariupol. Putin himself decided to isolate the Ukrainian defenders and civilians hiding with them in the Azovstal plant. They choose to do it in order to perhaps use their entire resources in the north of Donbas. To the north of Mariupol, the Russians were largely unsuccessful, failing to expand around Temirivka and Hulyaipole.

 

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4) The Russians continued attacks on Oleksandrivka, possibly even gaining ground there to some extent. However, this is limited in scale and doesn’t mean the Russians intend to further attack Mykolaiv, but rather they wanted to improve their defense position in Kherson, at least for now

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On April 21, Russians made modest gains in eastern Ukraine.

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1) The Russians made little to no gains in Izyum. Russian forces seems to have occupied a small village in the area between Izyum and Kreminna though, fighting reaching Rubtsi and Yatskikvka villages.

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2) Fighting continued in Donbas in Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Popasna, cities whose outskirts are partially occupied by the Russians, Popasna being 50% occupied.

 

 

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3) Despite declaring victory in Mariupol, and claiming that the entire city is completely captured, fighting continued around Azovstal Steel Plant. It seems the reason why Putin even declared victory is propaganda and covering up the difficulties Russian forces have met (Mariupol should have fallen in the first hours of invasion given that is a few kilometers from the 2014 frontline, not after 2 months).

 

 

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4) Russia occupied some settlements in Velyka Novosilka area.

 

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5) Finally, Russian forces failed to secure more territory in Kherson. It was announced that Russia may attempt to hold a referendum to establish a Kherson People's Republic, mirroring Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic in the east. This information is important because this seems to have been Russia's original strategy - occupying parts of Ukraine and creating separatists statelets in order to chop off Ukraine's territory. 

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Russia denied Ukraine's proposal for a 4-day long ceasefire during Orthodox Easter (this is for American conservatives that think Putin cares about religion in any way) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/22/zelenskyy-says-russia-rejected-easter-truce

This year it seems that Ukraine will probably receive the Holy Fire from Romania instead of Russia. https://www.antena3.ro/actualitate/lumina-sfanta-ucraina-razboi-preoti-romani-636984.html The fact that there is no unity between all Orthodox nations is very sad. The war is fought between two Orthodox nations that share a lot with each other and with the rest of the Orthodox world.

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Yesterday Russia's Deputy Commander oficially announced the second phase of the invasion and reiterated Russia's goal at the moment: to capture Donbas and secure a land bridge linking Donbas to Crimea and eventually Transnistria (Moldova). This is the first time when Moldovan territory is directely mentioned, but shouldn't come as a surprise if you are familiar with Russia's imperialist history :toofunny:  1.

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1) In Kharkiv (which became the northern front after the retreat from Kyiv ), the Ukrainians recaptured 3 settlements 2. Russian forces say Ukrainians attacked Russian-ocuppied Kozacha Lopan, a village 5km from the Russian border. If Ukrainians are successful in pushing back the Russians there, Ukrainian forces might even threated Belgorod (city in Russia proper) 3.

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2) The Russians didn't gain new ground in Izyum. They attempted to take some settlements in the SW of the city.

 

 

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3) Russia secured minor gains in Donbas yesterday - Russia captured Lozove (in between Izyum and Kreminna), but their advancement largely stopped. What needs to be said is that they have an easier time capturing villages compared to towns (according to Ukrainian forces, Russia captured 40 villages in Donetsk), however in Donbas the density of cities and towns in higher.

 

 

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4) Russia attempts to starve out Mariupol's last defenders in the Azostal Steel Plant, as Russian forces try to establish an occupation government to solidify their control over the city.

 

 

FQ_JSMCWQAItG1R?format=jpg&name=4096x4096 5) The Russians unsucesfully attacked Trudoliubivka in the north of Kherson. Moreover, they also continued the offensives in the direction of Zaporizhia and the area west of Kherson, though ISW claims Russia is unlikely to have the resources to capture them. Russia will likely try to establish a Kherson and Zaporizhia 'People's Republics' in southern Ukraine following the model of the so called Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republic'.

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Today is a note-worthy day, not necessarily because of what is happening on the ground, but because Ukraine celeberates Easter. Churches weren't opened at midnight, as they should have been, so believers would received the Holy Fire and attend Mass. They were instead open during the day so faithfuls will gather in smaller numbers over a longer period of time, to avoid the risk of bombardment 1 .

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1) Despite Russia's claims that the operation refocused on Donbas, the Russians continue to threaten Kharkiv by maintaining their positions around the city. However, taking Kharkiv would be at least equally difficult as taking Mariupol, so Russians choose to shell it in order to distract Ukraine's focus from Donbas. Paradoxically, this further destroys the pro-Russians sentiments that existed in the city prior to February 24 (if Putin's goal is to make Ukraine definetively side with the West, he did a tremendous job).

 

2) The Russians made no progress in Donbas, despiteScreenshot_431.png limited attacks directed at Rubizhne, Popasna and Marinka. The attacks on Avdiivka largely stopped though (the Russians want Avdiivka to perhaps establish a link between Mariupol and Donetsk city with Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and Izyum). ISW says Russia's specific goals and potential axes of advancement here are unclear, with one theory among many saying Russians want to encircle Severodonetsk.

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3) Russia continues its attempt to solifidy its control over Mariupol and anihilate city's last defenders at the Azostal Steel Plant.

 

 

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4) The Russians advanced a few kilometers in Zaporizhia Oblast in the direction of Hulyaipole (this move was meant to secure their positions in the south of Ukraine and perhaps reach some useful infrastructure like the N15 highway).  

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The war in Ukraine continued even on Easter day..

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1) There is a chance Russians might have taken control of Kurul'ka in the south of Izyum, however all their attacks yesterday were unsuccessful in this direction. The civilians seem to resist occupation in Kharkiv just like they do in Kherson (note: this area is more Russified and the Russian Language more widespread so one would naturally assume this area would be easier to take).

 

 

 

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2) In Donbas, Russia scored minor gains.

- Russian forces gained ground in the area NW of Rubizhne. 

- The invaders also made some advancements around Severodonetsk, occupying some settlements. Russian forces seized the village of Novotoshikivs’ke and the fighting has reached Orikhov and Nyzhne.

 

 

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3) Russia continues its attempt to establish control over the enterity of Mariupol, Azostal Steel Plant being the only remaning pocket of resistance & the last Ukrainian enclave on Ukraine's easter Black Sea Coast. A besiege on Odesa would be comparably gruesome and brutal to the one in Mariupol (Mariupol - 400k people before the war- will take more than 2 months to fall completely/ Odesa - 1M of people before war, you do the math. Not to say Odesa has lots of underground galleries very useful for fighting and is at a greater distance from Russia). To the north of Mariupol, Russians launched unsuccessful attacks in Zaporizhia region, likely related to their quest to eventually encircle the Ukrainian forces in the east.

 

 

 

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5) Ukraine announced it regained control over 5 settlements in Mykolaiv and 8 settlements in Kherson, getting closer to Kherson itself - the only other major city occupied by Russia besides Mariupol 1.

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During the last day, Ukraine forces reclaimed some territories in the south and east.

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1) Ukrainians reclaimed land west of Izyum (the Russians wanted to use that land in their atempt to reach Barvinkove). On the other hand, the Russians continue their quest to advance to Slovyansk, and unconfirmed reports say they were possibly successful in doing so, capturing a few small villages.

 

 

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2) The Russians continued with the disorganized, small scale attacks in Donbas and made little progress. According to Ukraine's claims, Russian attacks on Koroviy Yar and Rubizhne were repelled, while the Checken leader claimed Rubizhne fell (again). 

 

 

 

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3) Fighting is still taking place at Azovstal in Ukraine. In a very clever move, Ukraine suggested peace talks to take place in the ruins of the city. Russia tries to establish control over the city. 

 

 

 

 

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4) According to the Institute for the Study of War, the territory retook by Ukrainians in Kherson will distract the Russians from expanding in the east and prevent them from occupying the whole of Kherson. The counter-offensives are unlikely to threaten Kherson city in the near term, although that may still be a possibility. 

 

5) Russia hit Transnistria's capital with explosions in false flag attacks, in order to set the conditions for Tiraspol entering the war or to paint the narrative of the Russian population there is being opressed. There are queues of civilians leaving Transnistria as Moldova convenes its security council. :green:

 

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Just wanted to say I hope everything is okay with you...I can't recall where exactly you are from, but I believe it was Romania or Moldova so I know this recent sh*t in Transnistria must be jarring even with Romania being part of NATO.

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1 minute ago, LilyLark said:

@FfFfFfFF

Just wanted to say I hope everything is okay with you...I can't recall where exactly you are from, but I believe it was Romania or Moldova so I know this recent sh*t in Transnistria must be jarring even with Romania being part of NATO.

Thank you, I am fine! I am from Romania, but even so Moldova is directely linked with Romania and Transnistria would affect Moldova badly. I don't know why, in spite of analysts' claim that Odesa needs to be conquered first, the tensions are already rising.  :ph34r:

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Of course, Russia doesn't want to annex territories from neighbouring countries, Romania, in fact, the evil expansionist empire plagging Eastern Europe. Insane. :air:

 

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In the last 24 hours, the most note-worthy thing were Russia's false flag attacks in Transnistria. They can be worrying because military hostilities related to Transnistria or Moldova would indirectely impact Romania and NATO itself, but the ''positive'' thing - if you can call it this way - is that Odesa needs to fall before Russia advances towards Transnistria and the capture of Odesa would be a difficult task. It's speculated that on Victory Day, Russia may recognize the independence of Transnistria and of some more ''people's republics'' within Ukraine.

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1) In Kharkiv, Russia continued their attempt to reach Barvinkove and Slovyansk in Kharkiv oblast, with pro-Russian sources claiming they secured almost all settlements in Slovyansk's direction. Russia seems to want to push south towards Donetsk through two different routes at the same time. It's said that Russia may want to claim that they secured Donbas' frontiers by occupying its borders first and inner region later, or, most likely, that they want to create a deep encirclement of the Ukrainian forces here.

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2) In Donbas, Russia only made modest territorial advancements. Heavy fighting is taking place in Rubizhne, Popasna, Marinka.

 

 

 

 

 

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3) Despite Russia's claims that Mariupol was completely occupied, Ukrainian defenders still exist within the city and Azostal Steel Plant continues to be targeted by the Russians.

 

 

 

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4) The Russians are organizing offensives against Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih and occupied Oleksandrivka, in the direction of Mykolaiv. Russian activity near the administrative borders of Kherson indicate the Russians will try to push more heavily towards the city. Ukraine, on the other hand, regained control over some settlements in the east of the oblast.

 

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5) Transnistria claims its ammunition depot was hit by Ukrainian forces 1. Moreover, people in Transnistria started to receive false messages that Ukraine is about to attack the region 2. This is not an opportune moment for Russia to open a western front against Ukraine, as the Russians didn't even reach Mykolaiv, let alone subdue Odesa and its (pre-war) population of 1M people, so it's unclear what are Russia's reasons for the false-flag attacks over the last days. Perhaps they wants to cause civil unrest and division in Moldova, or simply create panic in order to fix Ukrainian positions in western Ukraine in place, either way the situations doesn't look good.

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∼ 5M refugees so far, basically the population of a small/medium sized country like Ireland or Finland..

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Updates from Romania and Moldova 1200px-Flag_of_Romania.svg.png 800px-Flag_of_Moldova.svg.png

carte_ro.jpg ◉ Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych says Moldova can ask Ukraine for help if they want to get rid of Transnistria, which he belives won't be a difficult task, also that Moldova should ask Romania to get involved if it feels threatened because ''they are the same people''. https://twitter.com/VladLupan/status/1519354912647389185

◉ Vasile Dîncu, Romania's Minister of Defence, says the events is Transnistria are provocations, but he sees a conflict unlikely to break out. He called the idea that Romania wants ''to annex'' Moldova dangerous propaganda, impying it should be ignored as it's only meant to create unrest.

◉ Moldova's president Maia Sandu said the unification with Romania and the integration in NATO will happen ''when the citizens will want it''https://infoprut.ro/89866-ce-spune-maia-sandu-despre-unirea-republicii-moldova-cu-romania.html She hilighted that Moldova is a democratic country able to choose its own future.

◉ Transnistria' Minister of Foreign Affairs says Transnistria wants ''a peaceful divorce'' from the Republic of Moldova. https://infoprut.ro/89856-tiraspolul-vrea-divort-pasnic-de-chisinau.html He cited the unlawful referendum of 2008 when seemingly 98% of the locals were in favour of independence and integration in Russian Federation.

◉ Moldova's former Prime Minister Iurie Leancă said Moldova has no chance against the Russians on its own and can only be saved by merging with Romania. He said that both Romania and Moldova need to analyse different possible situations in case Odesa becomes a target. https://www.antena3.ro/emisiuni/news-hour-with-cnn/iurie-leanca-fost-premieri-republica-moldova-despre-ce-ar-trebui-sa-faca-romania-unic-scenariu-unire-637625.html 

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