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Putin invades Ukraine


Magic Mike

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1) In the last 24 hours, northern Ukraine (Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy) was basically cleared of all Russian military presence. According to experts, the troops resent to Donbas are unlikely to help Russia make progress, as they are in low morale and exhausted.

FPh-1sLXIAMU0Ia?format=png&name=900x9002) After leaving northern and north-eastern Ukraine, the Russians are more exposed in Kharkiv. They are likely to launch an attack on Slovyansk in the near future from Izyum, in order to advance from Kharkiv area towards Donbas (possibly to Rubizhne, which is still under Ukrainian control, but eyed by the Russians). The capture of Slovyansk would increase their chances of success in eastern Ukraine. If Slovyansk falls, the Russians will move towards the unoccupied portion of Luhansk. Another possibility is that they will move towards northern Donetsk and encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Donbas.

3) The Russians made little progress in Donbas and Mariupol exceeded all expectations and as of April 5, still did not fall. The city is the only remaining Ukrainian enclave along the Azov Sea coast, which is almost completely a Russian lake now. If Mariupol falls, the Russians will move towards northern Donetsk in the attempt to capture the entire oblast.

Screenshot_486.png5) In Kherson, the Russians attempt to regain ground and recapture favorable defensive positions. However, Ukrainians regained control over territories in the northern region of the oblast. According to Ukrainian sources, the Russians want to re-capture the entire Kherson region (but is unknown if they want this in order to advance towards Mykolaiv). Zelensky spoke yesterday in Romania’s Parliament, and stated: 1) Romanian companies could help rebuild Ukraine, potentially by focusing on particular cities (I guess the ones close to the border), 2) this war is crucial for Moldova’s future, 3) Mykolaiv is Russia’s gateway to Odesa, which could be their gateway to Moldova). It’s not a mistake he said this, as Romania is interested in Moldova’s statehood and well-being because of historical, linguistic and cultural ties. If the Russians move towards Odesa, Moldova will be particularly exposed and should declare its desire to merge with NATO-member Romania.

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⬆️(He’s the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister) United Nations secretary-general António Guterres has made a direct plea to Russian present Putin, saying: “In the name of humanity bring your troo

omg. This is so damn frustrating...war in Europe...never thought our generation would witness this. Praying for Ukraine and the people there and I am praying this is not a bloody long lasting war...go

The 2020’s decade has brought out the worst qualities in humans.  

TheSlash

I heard that Putin plans on taking over the southeast of Ukraine from Crimea up to Luhansk (basically everything that borders the Asov Sea) and eventually integrate it into Russia.

Take all that with a grain of salt tho as it's just a rumor going around.

Ew, David!
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1) In the last 24 hours, after the north of Ukraine has been cleared of Russian military presence, according to the General Staff of Ukraine, there are (unsurprinsingly) no signs of any potential attacks from Belarus.

 

 

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2) In Kharkiv region, after Izium was taken, it seems that the Russians want to advance south, in not one, but two directions: towards Sloviansk (which was already pretty widely known), but also towards Barvinkove. The Russians may attempt to encircle the Ukrainians forces in eastern Ukraine in 2 ways: the former is more conservative and comparatively easier to secure and the later is more ambitious but more exposed. 

3) The Russians failed to expand their occupation zone in Donbas, despite a heavy push there. Against all odds, Mariupol was still not completely occupied.

Screenshot_533.png4) It seems that the Russians do not want to retreat from southern Ukraine, they moreover attacked Oleksandrivka (previously lost settlement in the north of Kherson). The following days/ weeks, it will be a bit more clear what Russia's territorial ambitions after the retreat in the north are: aka if they want Crimea and the south-eastern corner of Ukraine, or the whole Kharkiv-Donetsk-Zaporizhia-Mykolaiv-Odesa axis.

Ukraine claims the airport in Transnistria may be prepared receive Russian aircraft, Transnistria possibily getting involved (at Russia's command) to attack Ukraine from a new front in the west and to improve Russia's position in the Odesa region. If this is the case, it possible Russia may indeed attempt to re-create Novorossiya and take Ukraine's entire Black Sea coast. However, Moldova denied any military activity in Transnistria.

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Edited by FfFfFfFF
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Russia acting up after Poland and Lithuania closed their land borders, thus preventing Russia from reaching its Kaliningrad exclave via land. The West is, in their eyes, ''playing with fire''.

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1) In the last 24 hours, despite deploying troops previously used in the north-east, the Russians failed to advance significantly in the Izium x Rubizhne x Sieverodonetsk area. After limited gains around Izium, the Russians want to move south of the city towards Luhansk+Donetsk. A heavy push in Donbas in the following days is expected, as the Russians want to break through the Ukrainian defences in what is the most well-prepared part of the country.

 

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2) ISW doesn't have information about the changes in the territorial control of Mariupol, given the situation that is in. The city resisted to an extend almost nobody would have even expected, but could, at this point, fall any moment.

 

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3) Ukrainians continue to retake settlements on the western bank of Dnieper, in Kherson region. According to the Institue for the Study of War, despite being unlikely that Transnistria will enter the war, US and NATO should strongly condemn the idea. 

 

 

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Algeria and Russia will hold joint military exercises at the border with Morroco this November. Alergia also voted against removing Russia from UN's Human Rights Council.

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Ronk
1 hour ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Algeria and Russia will hold joint military exercises at the border with Morroco this November. Alergia also voted against removing Russia from UN's Human Rights Council.

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I'm not believing they will be military drills.  Putin thinks the world will fall for that ruse again.   Morocco better massively build up it's defenses along the Algerian border.

I live outside the space time continuum.
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FfFfFfFF
10 hours ago, Ronk said:

I'm not believing they will be military drills.  Putin thinks the world will fall for that ruse again.   Morocco better massively build up it's defenses along the Algerian border.

This will one instance I will tend to believe the Russians (until further evidence). Russia does military exercises all the time and Morroco is resonably far away from Russia's borders.

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FfFfFfFF

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1) In the last 24 hours, the Russians failed to expand over the Izyum-Sloviansk axis. Russian forces being unable to move south of Izyum towards Donbas mean Russia will have a harder time fighting Ukrainians in this region.

2) Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian attacks along the frontline in Donbas. According to 🇺🇦, Ukraine regained setlements around Rubizhne in Luhansk region and pushed the Russians back 6-10km, while 🇷🇺 claims Russia proxies captured Solodke in the south-east of Donetsk.

 

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 3) Donetsk People’s Republic claim they captured Mariupol’s city center, however, Ukrainian resistance still exist within the city. The city is overall close to falling.

 

 

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 4) In the south, the Russians try to secure their grip over Kherson while Ukrainians launch counter-attacks.

Edited by FfFfFfFF
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FfFfFfFF
1 hour ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Ukrainian residents, together with their pets, are advised to evacuate from eastern Ukraine, as a large scale offensive from the Russians is likely to take place.

 

Staying is not safe, leaving is not safe. Imagine how it is to live knowing you have caused massacre, like any amount of oil, territory or influence is remotely worth it in any way. :toofunny:

 

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Magui
20 minutes ago, FfFfFfFF said:

Staying is not safe, leaving is not safe. Imagine how it is to live knowing you have caused massacre, like any amount of oil, territory or influence is remotely worth it in any way. :toofunny:

 

All those lifes taken at train station... The war is heading towards a massacre of civilians, it already was but seeing Bucha, Borodyanka and this attack it's terrible. We don't even know half what's happening 🥺😥.

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FfFfFfFF

During the last 24 hours, not much has changed compared to previous days, the main focus continues to be eastern Ukraine, and to a lesser extend, the area aroud Dnieper.

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1) According to ISW, Russian troops north of the Belarusian border are meant to threaten and distract and they are unlikely to be used for another actual offensive.

 2) The Russians continue to shell Kharkiv and attemp to secure their holdings in the oblast from Ukrainian counter-attacks. They failed to capture more territory in the south of Izium. This gets in the way of marching towards Donbas from a northern direction.

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3) No changes in the frontline in eastern Ukraine. The upcoming attacks on Donbas are said to be comparable in magnitide to WW2.

4) Mariupol is to a significant extend under Russian control, however, not fully.

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 5) Ukrainians regained ground in Kherson. According to an Ukrainian mayor, Russians were succeseful in capturing just 1 settlement in Mykolaiv oblast, upcoming offensives being unlikely. Ukrainians recaptured an area west of Kherson while the Russians failed to expand.

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Today was also almost completely unremarkable, neither side scored any substantial gains. 

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1) The Russians made almost no progress south of Izium. This area (Izium-Slovyansk axis) is crucial from Russia's perspective, as it's the natural link between their captured territory in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. If Slovyansk falls, they would be one step closer to encircling Ukrainian forces in this corner of the country.

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2,a) The Russians continue to launch attacks along the frontline in Donbas. They hardly gained any new territory in this part of the country. According to ISW, this may relate to the fact that the newly deployed troops are very low-quality and may not even help Russia advance to a significant extend. That said, the same source asserts that capturing the entire Donbas area is certainly possible. 

2,b) Mariupol was still not captured in its entirety. According to various sources, 10-35% of the city might still be under Ukrainian control

 

3) Very little happened in the south of Ukraine. After Ukraine regained areas in the N and 278062427_316334940606590_6161375309605531986_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=ae9488&_nc_ohc=YXMQv_AMa8EAX-PLe8x&_nc_ht=scontent.fsbz1-2.fna&oh=03_AVKpJmJC0YrA551losackoj6eu0sPu7uvAbm4P93BnduBA&oe=6276CFA7W of Kherson in recent days, the occupation lines remained static. Similarly to last month's situation in the north, the invasion largely stalled and the Russians switched to the defensive. In this current state, the most likely option of Russian expansion is taking over Donbas and south-eastern Black Sea coast. Significantly less likely at this point in time is the occupation of the entire Novorossiya, land streching from Kharkiv & Zaporizhia to Mykolaiv and Odesa. What needs to be stressed however is the fact that the situation is by default impredictible and volatile. If things change and Russia advances past Kherson, Mykolaiv will be targeted directly. If the city falls, next in line would be Odesa from which the Russians would advance towards Izmail and towards Tiraspol (Transnistria). Russia capturing Izmail would mean Russia and NATO would face each other directly along the Danube.

Edited by FfFfFfFF
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Moscow Duma deputy asked for the restoration Taurida Governorate's old borders, hinting that capturing this land + the entire Donetsk and Luhanks might be a strategic goal of Russia.

 

Edited by FfFfFfFF
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