Feinberg updated his prediction list for the Oscars and put Gaga back in...

[LilyLark 9,694]

Scott Feinberg is a journalist from THR and he is generally considered the most "reliable" of the awards season journalists. He's not always 100% correct, but he's often very close (much closer than the rest). He also doesn't indulge in clickbait like most of the other journalists....Anyway, the difference between Scott and the others is that he clearly has an "in" with a lot of very prominent people in the movie industry. He lands interviews with major figures and was the only journalist at a party held for Sidney Poitier shortly before he passed. A lot of famous people in the industry who rarely give interviews will talk to him. I suspect a lot of this is due to the fact that he seems to take it very easy on the people he interviews (as in, avoids asking them tough questions and doesn't take them out of context, etc.).

So he updated his prediction list today and his current Best Actress line up is as follows: Cruz/Kidman/Colman/Gaga/Emilia Jones (from CODA). He has Chastain/Hudson/Stewart as the top three possibilities besides the main five. He had Gaga off the list for a while (he basically had her ranked as sixth) but put her back on a while ago but then he "re-updated" and put her on. He was the only one to put on Zegler (she's now way off) before she got her NBR nod, so he clearly can tell which way the buzz is going...idg the Jones buzz but clearly something is there for him to keep having her up towards the top or in the main 5.

Anyway, like I don't think it's a guarantee Gaga is getting an Oscar nom (it is a VERY competitive year) but at this point she probably has an 80-90% chance. At one point, no one really thought that was happening so it's cool that her chances are so strong.

*What will be interesting is BAFTA...they revamped BAFTA around 2019 (it had major diversity issues (to the point Denzel had never been nominated) among other things)...except the revamp didn't work very well and now the only ones who seem to benefit are UK based actresses instead of WOC and/or actresses in non English lang. performances. It doesn't really line up with the Oscars very much anymore...Gaga/Chastain/Kristen are likely to miss BAFTA because of the new rules and instead there were probably be some British actresses in British films that aren't getting Oscar attention or have very little Oscar attention...but if Gaga gets in regardless that is a VERY good sign. Right now the most likely 3 to get BAFTA nods are Jones/Colman/Scanlen....

[pedrohemg 7,802]

I don't trust him anymore. Why is he predicting Emilia Jones? And that Penelope nonsense is tiring. He and Clayton are very off this season.

[LilyLark 9,694]

2 minutes ago, pedrohemg said:

I don't trust him anymore. Why is he predicting Emilia Jones? And that Penelope nonsense is tiring. He and Clayton are very off this season.

He's been more off this season than usual, but at least he's not indulging in clickbait and he doesn't tend to take people out of context. Clayton is obviously reaching for clicks at this point...

Yeah, idg the Jones hype either (tho I do think she's a shoo-in for BAFTA due to being British) but everyone has her near the top five so something's going on...CODA isn't even getting that big of a campaign so there's probably some truth to the buzz that the voters like the film a lot.

[PartySick 134,069]

I don't know anything about any of these actors or film culture or this guy that does predictions...I'm just happy to see our girl included

[pedrohemg 7,802]

6 minutes ago, LilyLark said:

He's been more off this season than usual, but at least he's not indulging in clickbait and he doesn't tend to take people out of context. Clayton is obviously reaching for clicks at this point...

Yeah, idg the Jones hype either (tho I do think she's a shoo-in for BAFTA due to being British) but everyone has her near the top five so something's going on...CODA isn't even getting that big of a campaign so there's probably some truth to the buzz that the voters like the film a lot.

I believe he's trying to get things right, but I can't see how Emilia and Penelope could make it. He wrote an article today talking about how international members are making the Oscars hard to predict. But, Penelope was snubbed at the BAFTAS. Those international members didn't help her there.

[Dennis 7,800]

I am the best Oscar predictor. And Gaga is in, but she's not winning, not after today's HoG flopping. I don't think she can win without a Best Picture nomination. And today made that less likely. SAD! I was hyped up after SAG and BAFTA longlists.

[LilyLark 9,694]

@Dennis

TBH I never thought she was going to win (at one point, I thought she wasn't getting to get nominated). It's just way too competitive this year and when you have legends like Kidman (even in a film like BTR) and Colman...to beat actresses like that an actress has to be in a film that is highly, highly acclaimed (like nearly 100% at RT) and also an AMPAS friendly role. And those are few and far between (ASIB, West Side Story, etc.)....if WSS story had been a box office hit and Ariana had been in lead (and not supporting) she might have had a chance.

[LilyLark 9,694]

19 minutes ago, pedrohemg said:

I believe he's trying to get things right, but I can't see how Emilia and Penelope could make it. He wrote an article today talking about how international members are making the Oscars hard to predict. But, Penelope was snubbed at the BAFTAS. Those international members didn't help her there.

Because of the new international members, my delulu self thought Penelope had a strong chance to win at one point.  Actors in his films get nominated a lot, and the Academy often ignores non-English language performances so that's a big deal. Plus, there are a lot more international members now (so more likely to be open to non-English lang. performances) and Penelope (while respected in the US) is even more respected in international cinema imo. And Parallel Mothers is an Academy friendly film, it's an Academy friendly role, etc....

But yeah, I agree....the fact that she was left off the BAFTA long list means she probably has no chance. But I get why Feinberg thought she had a strong chance when you look at the above and add in Sony Picture Classics is usually good at campaigning.

If anything, I think Hudson & Stewart will be the other two instead of Cruz and Jones. Allegedly a lot of int. members hate Tammy Faye.

[MelbHawker 6,190]

I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen this year with Oscar nominations  I read something new every day when it comes to predictions. I would love to see Gaga nominated - it’d be an amazing feat. given it’s only really her second film role. Anything can happen though.. there’s so many worthy performances.