Super Thursday: HOG shut out

[PunkTheFunk 121,472]

I knew this movie was a bad idea. Gaga's career is over. What was she thinking 

[CannaeDrive 3,388]

Just now, PunkTheFunk said:

I knew this movie was a bad idea. Gaga's career is over. What was she thinking 

IKR, we are waiting for The Cure video since when? I can't remember 

[IHE 555]

HOG was never going to win the Oscar for best picture. 🤣😂 We been knew.

Also Nicole Kidman likely has this in the bag. It's exactly the type of role that wins.

[EGOT2027 9,907]

1 hour ago, TylerBR97 said:

We are literally only hoping for a best actress nom. There’s no way HOG is getting a best picture nom

 

1 hour ago, Reality said:

I feel like a lot of people thought that in the beginning 

 

10 minutes ago, monstertoronto said:

Came here to say what everyone has already said.  These guilds weren’t expected to nom HOG, especially not the writers or directors guilds!  There was a very outside chance at best picture because the movie has been so well recognize by the public and made so much money, but no one was expecting it. Gaga’s overperformance with her own nominations so far is the strongest indicator that she will be nominated for an Oscar. The writers guild and the directors guild don’t matter at all for her chances. 

yeah i think before gucci came out, people were expecting a BP nom, but then after the mixed reviews that died down. for a while folks were only really expecting gaga, makeup, costumes, and maybe jared. however after gucci over-performed at SAG and in the BAFTA longlists, i think some people started to think the industry might have liked this movie better than people thought (or than some of the critics did), leading some to put it in their 10th BP slot. i still think there is a 30ish percent chance that it gets a BP nom, but today definitely doesn't help.

another reason some folks started to add it back to the bottom of their BP lists is that it over-performed at SAG and BAFTA just as all the talk about spiderman came up (and the debate on film twitter about why a movie like that should or shouldn't be getting nominated for BP). i think a lot of folks thought that the academy would surely go with one movie that a lot of people have actually seen this year but that gucci might be easier for the academy types to swallow than spiderman. (after all it is the highest grossing drama in years, stars legends old and new like al pacino and gaga, and the only movie that seemed to really drive people to the theaters this pandemic winter besides spiderman.) but now it seems like the consensus is that don't look up is going to take that "movie a lot of regular people actually saw" slot

[StarstruckIllusion 41,936]

All I care for is Gaga getting nominated for Best Actress at the Oscars… so wake me up when that happens 

[Leoooo 2,159]

7 hours ago, PawsUpJago said:

I'm just glad people like Gaga's performance across the board really. Even me as a stan thought her acting was a little off at points so I'm happy it worked for public and critics alike

HOG never deserved a nom for best picture let's be honest

Its tricky watching somebody who's mannerisms / nuances you know so well. As much as we try, many of us will always see her for who she is and feel like a proud parent while their daughter slays the school play

[LilyLark 9,694]

I don't really think this will impact Gaga's chances either way in terms of a nomination. If HOG picked up a PGA nod, it might have helped her a tiny bit. But before SAG/BAFTA long lists, no one thought it was getting a nom at any of the guilds beyond make up/hair, acting, and costumes. And even after SAG/BAFTA long lists, it was a "maybe" thing.

In the past, an actor or actress having their film miss a best picture nod could trickle down and impact their chance of being nominated in an acting category. That doesn't really apply this year (Chastain, Garfield, Denzel, Kristen, JHud, Gaga, etc.) are all in films that are unlikely to be nominated for best picture (well, Tick Tick Boom might slip in along with MacBeth IFeinberg took out MacBeth, though)...). Now, in terms of actually winning (not just a nomination), doing well at the PGA/WGA and then a best pic nod can help...but even then it's not going to be some massive boost.

Also, a lot of people thought BTR was going to take that 10th best picture slot over HOG. I've also seen some people argue that it's likely to be Nightmare Alley (despite it flopping, AMPAS loves del Toro and the reviews were good) or Drive my Car.

[LilyLark 9,694]

7 hours ago, TylerBR97 said:

We are literally only hoping for a best actress nom. There’s no way HOG is getting a best picture nom

Besides Gaga, it's definitely getting costume design (could even win that category) and make up/hair. Also (lol), Jared has a good shot at being nominated...not quite as good at Gaga but still above 50%

[LilyLark 9,694]

5 hours ago, iWontBeTonight said:

 

 

 i think a lot of folks thought that the academy would surely go with one movie that a lot of people have actually seen this year but that gucci might be easier for the academy types to swallow than spiderman. (after all it is the highest grossing drama in years, stars legends old and new like al pacino and gaga, and the only movie that seemed to really drive people to the theaters this pandemic winter besides spiderman.) but now it seems like the consensus is that don't look up is going to take that "movie a lot of regular people actually saw" slot

Don't Look Up is definitely getting a best pic nom (despite having worse reviews than Gucci, BTR, etc.), which is driving film twitter crazy. I think the 10th slot was always going to be a battle between BTR/Drive My Car/Macbeth with HOG as a spoiler...and it will probably go to BTR looking at the current noms. It has an AMPAS friendly premise (they love that sort of movie), big stars and people behind the film, etc.

[dit 43,478]

I know she prob won't win but I definitely want her to be nominated again. How ICONIC would it be for her first two leading roles to be both Oscar nominated? It would be amazing. Plus by her third nomination she could also ride the wave of "she's been nominated so many times....she deserves this win" narrative which has helped many multi nominated actress win an oscar before.

[zakariah 11,556]

meh. i only care about gaga's nomiantions/wins anyways, could care less about the film as a whole

[Wet Fire 5,676]

Will Gaga be able to survive this terribly inauspicious day? I'm telling you she's OVER...

...all these tactics by some people to cause overblown meltdowns among little monsters. She's getting almost universal acclaim for her role (sadly, fans have focused so much on the film's mixed reviews that somehow that's become more highlighted than Gaga's acting. Unlike Nicole, who in spite of mixed reviews , has been able to keep the film's reviews and her acting separate in the Oscar race). Gaga will continue snatching nominations and awards this season and in her future projects as well. She's clearly already solidified herself as an actor winning at least one coveted award for each of her major roles so far: GG for AHS, CC and NBR for ASIB, NYFCC for HoG. She's only going to get bigger and better 

[memomemome 1,475]

I guess because of some previous best actress winner is best picture nominee.

It may hinder Gaga chances for winning and not at the frontrunner at current race

But let's see anyway. 

[Pennywise 34,692]

In a reverse Azerbaijanian expedition, Gucci didn't smash, Gaga did 

[Tyler1992 1,800]

I don’t think anyone was expecting HOG to enter the BP race (it had dark horse potential from its initial release).

That being said, this film is ALL about the performances, hair & make-up, costumes, and set design. 

What makes me happy as a Gaga stan is how Gaga amplified the film. That’s rare from a pop star turned actor. Compare Gaga to Cameron Diaz in The Counsellor. This film could have been SO much worse if it wasn’t for the lead.