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Tension rises at Russia-Ukraine border, new conflict likely


FfFfFfFF

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@FfFfFfFF i just wanted your opinion on something, i doesn't have anything to do with this conflict now, but it was side effect.

Like, the plane that was shot, take down by Russian military, why there's no consequence from that? It scares me that Russia doesn't get to pay at least, pay for all lives that were losted. To be responsible, all those people died and nothing happened. If my country did something remotely like that, i can only imagine the consequences for the government, military. Then some countries can get way with everything.

 

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I am so over the idiotic, incompetent imbeciles that happen to run the world consistently killing people for this d!ck measuring contest humanity has had to endure since the beginning of time. Is it r

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wait...those red checkered lines...Russia can't be thinking of taking THAT much land away from Ukraine right?! that's insane. It literally is all the land east of hte Dnieper river...I thought they we

1 hour ago, Magui said:

But who in is right mind would advance to Moscow? Like what european country from today would even think attacking Moscow? Like not even Germany who think it's probably the most strong european country ( probably with a better army, i don't know) could go against Russia ( it's freaking a enormous country)

Germany isn’t the strongest country in Europe. Economically it is but the UK and France both have stronger armies then Germany 

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Banned 04/19/2020 - 04/19/2020
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NightStar
1 hour ago, FfFfFfFF said:

A military conflict between Russia and US and US-allied Europe and Russia, which sounds just like WW3. :huntyga: But it's very unlikely to happen because Ukraine is not in the NATO (Russia has a habit of supporting separatism in the countries they formerly controlled, as  they want to destabilise them and further increase their influence, so a legitimately scarry scenario would be Russia supporting Russian separatists in Estonia, which is a NATO country, that may actually lead to something major).

Besides the (primal) desire for power and imperialism, the Russian agression towards its neighbours has its roots in its history and geography. Basically, Russia feels exposed and is a perpetual aggresor as a result (from Paris and Berlin to Moscow, there are no mountains or any natural barries, which allowed precendents such as Napoleon's and Hitler's invading Russian territory directly to Moscow). They opress so they won't be opressed themselves.

There is a solid point in your post regarding the self-imposed feeling of being exposed to external threats due to the absence of natural barriers. Even before Napoleon and Hitler invasion, it had been woven into the Russian culture by the perception of what had at some points in time been considered the greatest cultural tragedy of Russia: the invasion of Mongols (1238-1240).

Despite the ancient nature of the event, it was later reflected upon as one of the biggest loss of time, culture and chance for development for Rus', because Mongolian army overran nearly all the major cities, destroyed Kiev and subjected almost the entire Rus' to its rule for almost 300 years (until formally 1480).

After the fall of Kiev, except for the period during which the Kievan tradition was continued in the Kingdom of Galicia, Russian civilization shrank and survived only in the far north and in the east (Novgorod and the principalities of the upper Volga, one of which, Moscow, ultimately succeeded in unifying the neighboring territories). 

So this fear of conquest goes way back earlier than Hitler or Napoleon.

As per the tensions rising alongside the border, it has a lot more to do with the current diplomatic stuff rather than with Russia's destructive foreign policy nature per se. There is an understanding that's shaping up on both sides of the border about the peace process which was established under German Mrs. Merkel, French Mr. Hollande, Russian Mr. Putin and Ukranian Mr. Poroshenko in Minsk in February of 2015. They are called Minsk II agreements, and regardless of how people perceive the contents of these agreements, nobody can claim that the proposed measures have been implemented, again, regardless of the reasons. 

Russian foreign Minister Mr. Lavrov has recently published (breaking the diplomatic protocol) some letters he was exchanging with German and French vis-à-vis in an attempt to expose eu partners' lack of enthusiasm of Minsk II agreements. The President of Ukraine Mr. Zelensky gave an interview to Financial Times earlier this year, where he called for "a revamp of the peace process". It's almost safe to assume that the Minsk II agreements will soon become history, and if so, then both sides of this war will no longer have their signatures put under the ceasefire agreement. 

There are a lot of people who have been skeptical about the Minsk II peace process and called the Minsk II agreements "stupid papers" from the very start, but the very existence of such signed agreements gave a lot of room for diplomatic opportunities and diplomatic efforts to end this conflict. Without Minsk II agreements, there will be no clear room for diplomacy, and when there's no room for diplomacy, there is room for war. 

On a grander scale, Russia's rogue behavior in foreign policy is not so much explained by the sense of humiliation because of Soviet Union collapse and the consequent desire to restore it in some way; for some weird reason Kremlin (mis)conceptions date rather to Russian Empire. They demand influence over all territories which had been in Russian Empire's realm, including Finland and Poland. Kremlin chief foreign policy makers live in some sort of parallel universe where Russia won the First World War and the Bolsheviks never happened, and they continue to ignore the fact that it's a rather broke-ass country that can't afford such grand foreign policy. 

 

 

 

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Florian
1 hour ago, Magui said:

But who in is right mind would advance to Moscow? Like what european country from today would even think attacking Moscow? Like not even Germany who think it's probably the most strong european country ( probably with a better army, i don't know) could go against Russia ( it's freaking a enormous country)

France has the strongest army in Europe and the only country in the EU with nuclear weapons. 

European could def attack back with the support of NATO tho.

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20 minutes ago, Florian said:

France has the strongest army in Europe and the only country in the EU with nuclear weapons. 

European could def attack back with the support of NATO tho.

Thanks. When I was writing the post i wasn't sure, i consider France too but ultimately thought it was Germany. But my point was that no one wants to advance on Russia, there's no threat. Also even if they can attack back, no one else wants that mess. It's unfortunate that the Ukraine isn't part of  NATO, it would provide some protection and calm down the Russian intentions. I don't see NATO or UE intervention if Russia goes forward and annex some more Ukraine territories, sanctions probably. Probably trying more negations. Crimeia was annexed the same will happen with other territories i guess.

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insight
47 minutes ago, NightStar said:

... and they continue to ignore the fact that it's a rather broke-ass country that can't afford such grand foreign policy. 

 

 

 

This is the biggest paradox for me. Why wage war and conquer new territories if you can't properly ensure their financial sustainability? Look at Crimea.

Their obsession to restore the former glory and borders of the Russian Empire is mind boggling. 

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lavender blonde

My country borders with Ukraine and we have lots of migrants from there so I naturally have met some Ukrainian people and I have only one thing to say: Western world has f*cked Ukraine up so bad. Those people were fighting and dying on the streets during Euromaidan and we just watched it on TV. Then we let Putin to invade them.

Yeah, we, western world, LET him - literally, because he did it using money he earned on doing business with EU (mainly with Germany). There was a time in world politics when western politicians thought that doing business with Putin and giving him money will bring us peace, but it was a fatal mistake (and I don't want to sound like I'm too hard on our politicians, because I reckon their intensions were fair, but it just didn't work out). Putin will invade Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Estonia and others as long as we buy his gas from Gasprom. No business with Russia - they will stop invading others. I just hope Biden and new German goverment will stand up against Russia. I see Macron has already did.

But even though - I still can't think of western world actually doing something to stop Putin. I guess he'll invade Ukraine and.. and he'll just get away with it again.

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5 hours ago, majkl said:

I know someone from Ukraine, which fled for the conflict a couple of years ago. She is now studying in my former hometown but she has told me some stuff from the conflict and told me that she was heavily traumatised by it. Meanwhile, Bulgaria seems to be a bit too friendly with Russia as they claimed that Crimea is Russian. I don’t have a particularly good feeling about the whole situation, but I wish the best for GGD members in the region :bradley:

Bulgaria is such a mess.  They better fix their low vaccination rate which is the lowest in Europe before they come for other countries like Ukraine. They're such puppets...

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22 minutes ago, Hades said:

Bulgaria is such a mess.  They better fix their low vaccination rate which is the lowest in Europe before they come for other countries like Ukraine. They're such puppets...

To be honest, I am not Bulgarian, so I have a different view of their politics than most Bulgarians. But they have a lot of stuff to fix, like at one point, I went to the tax revenue agency and they tried to get a bribe from me because I am a westerner. The amount of homophobia is like astronomically high, a while ago, a presidential candidate attacked an LGBTQ-community centre and the same dude was apparently throwing Molotov Cocktails during the first pride. I love living here, but anyone with common sense knows that Bulgaria should be more concerned with their internal affairs than foreign affairs, which has been, pretty bad lately considering that they’re constantly vetoing the hell out of North Macedonia in becoming an EU-member state.

majkl > kitsch
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12 minutes ago, majkl said:

To be honest, I am not Bulgarian, so I have a different view of their politics than most Bulgarians. But they have a lot of stuff to fix, like at one point, I went to the tax revenue agency and they tried to get a bribe from me because I am a westerner. The amount of homophobia is like astronomically high, a while ago, a presidential candidate attacked an LGBTQ-community centre and the same dude was apparently throwing Molotov Cocktails during the first pride. I love living here, but anyone with common sense knows that Bulgaria should be more concerned with their internal affairs than foreign affairs, which has been, pretty bad lately considering that they’re constantly vetoing the hell out of North Macedonia in becoming an EU-member state.

What bothers me with Bulgaria is that while they have so many problems to fix they're always ready to support Russia or Turkey with their crazy threats. 

Anyways i hope things will go well for Ukraine. I really feel sad for them. They're going through so much. :smh:

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MonsterVlad

Okay, this is the second time in my life I don't know what to do because of Russia. 
I was born in Donetsk and lived there for 19 years before it was occupied by so-called Donetsk People's Republic supported by Russia. Long story short: my family lost everything. We moved to Kyiv and worked so hard for 7 years to start a new life from scratch. And now Russia laid its eyes on Kyiv :rip:

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NightStar
4 minutes ago, MonsterVlad said:

Okay, this is the second time in my life I don't know what to do because of Russia. 
I was born in Donetsk and lived there for 19 years before it was occupied by so-called Donetsk People's Republic supported by Russia. Long story short: my family lost everything. We moved to Kyiv and worked so hard for 7 years to start a new life from scratch. And now Russia laid its eyes on Kyiv :rip:

Kremlin will never start a real war on Ukraine because real wars can be lost, contrary to the hybrid "we are not there" wars which can be sold on its propaganda tv networks. Moreover, even the most hawkish Kremlin decision makers can't possibly believe that Ukrainian territory in its enormous entirety can be governed/administered. If you take a look at their record, there is something similar about Crimea, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and maybe some other territories I may have forgotten. They can't compare to the size Ukraine and to its diversity and the development level -- I mean, who in their sane mind can think of conquering a country with 15 running nuclear reactors ?:rip:

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NightStar
8 hours ago, insight said:

This is the biggest paradox for me. Why wage war and conquer new territories if you can't properly ensure their financial sustainability? Look at Crimea.

Their obsession to restore the former glory and borders of the Russian Empire is mind boggling. 

I believe they are not actually inspired by the idea to restore the former glory and borders of the Russian Empire. They want to become an integral part of the pan-European security system, but their idea of a security system is really outdated and contradicts to the most modern European concepts. For them, the cherished security system is something close to Westphalian sovereignty, where no International bodies of power can intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any state. It's just that they want to have this "Westphalian sovereignty" not over Russian modern borders, but rather over the sphere of influence of the former Russian empire. But their main purpose is to make "the West" recognize their sovereignty over these spheres of influence beyond Russian borders, for the reason which is often misunderstood: they want external recognition as power-brokers and deal-makers because they understand that their domestic support is falling.

The more messy and complex the Kremlin foreign affairs are, the less people will be willing to take control over the office which has such a heavy burden of unresolved issues on its back (not that there were lines of people running for president now). And if they (the Kremlin) for some reason will be recognized as something more than "a regional power" (to quote mr. Obama), then it will serve as an additional steroid shot to their legitimacy which is thinning. 

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FfFfFfFF
10 hours ago, Magui said:

@FfFfFfFF i just wanted your opinion on something, i doesn't have anything to do with this conflict now, but it was side effect.

Like, the plane that was shot, take down by Russian military, why there's no consequence from that? It scares me that Russia doesn't get to pay at least, pay for all lives that were losted. To be responsible, all those people died and nothing happened. If my country did something remotely like that, i can only imagine the consequences for the government, military. Then some countries can get way with everything.

 

I am not really well-versed about that incident, though it seems that EU tried its best to deescalate a potential crisis. Nobody wants to really piss of Russia. This is why international sanctions were so mild after Russia first attacked Ukraine (we love to think we live in a modern world where the security of one country's border is guaranteed, that we have powerful peace-keeping organizations such as UN, but we are wrong).

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