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Democrats might lose New Hampshire


Dennis

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thefamebitch

It’s going to take some really humiliating defeats, some maybe worse than 2016, for the DNC and some of the MSNBC/ CNN base to finally realize how far gone they actually are. 

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The democrats suck just as much as the Republicans. Biden’s approval rate is lower than Trumps and only keeps getting lower. The man cannot even string a sentence together and on top of that he is bri

is anyone actually surprised lol.  There has not been material changes economically that everyday people have seen in their lives. There have been good things that have happened thus far but it's

No one should be surprised by this. Both parties are corrupt. 

ctherainbow

So, from someone who has worked in elections and polling for over a decade now:

Ya’ll need to calm tf down.   :smh: 

- New Hampshire is by far the most conservative state in New England, and is considered a swing state that is slowly trending left, not a “Safe Blue” state.

- The incumbent Republican governor, who may run for Senate, is very personally popular, and has done significant work to distance himself from the Republican Party on several social issues.

- The California recall election this year resulted in about the same margin of victory for the Democratic Governor that Biden had last year, showing that Dems have not lost as much energy and will to vote as we usually do during midterms.  In addition, turnout in suburban areas, which are some of the fastest growing areas in terms of Democratic power, was strong.

- You’re not wrong to be concerned about possibly losing this Senate seat, but there are a hell of a lot more useful things you could do than melt down in a GGD thread over it.  Having worked in elections so long, I can tell you that NOTHING is more frustrating for those of us out in the trenches than seeing people talk about the problem and not put in work to try to fix the problem.  I’m from Pennsylvania, where next year, we have the opportunity to flip one of our Senate seats from red to blue, and we have the opportunity to do it with a candidate of color, a female candidate, or a queer candidate (all of whom have already announced their campaigns).  I would appreciate all the help you could give, so rather than doom-scrolling, please check out Malcolm Kenyatta, Val Arkoosh, or any of the other great candidates we have running for other seats.  Get involved in your local elections; they’re where you train future Presidents and Senators.  Go register new voters, and follow up with them to make sure they vote.  If Millenials/Zoomers voted at anywhere near the rate that middle-aged and old people do, our country would be in such a better and more progressive place.

Tl;dr:  Chill out, a close race was expected, and go do constructive elections work before doom-posting on a social media site.  If you’re not sure how to get started, I can help you.   😸

I'm talkin' 'bout forever, baby.
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Gagaloo911
58 minutes ago, KanyeWest said:

u need a middle ground, too left and it's bad in my opinion, it goes downhill, too right and there are bigots, u need a new party, why always choose rep vs dem, arent americans tired of it? i would

Oh yes, we are sick and tired of it.

Why do you think Republican voters went for Trump?

In their eyes he's a big "fvck you" to our corrupt establishment and 2 party system, even though he's just as corrupt and incompetent.

A sad state of affairs all around.

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Gagaloo911
11 minutes ago, ctherainbow said:

So, from someone who has worked in elections and polling for over a decade now:

Ya’ll need to calm tf down.   :smh: 

- New Hampshire is by far the most conservative state in New England, and is considered a swing state that is slowly trending left, not a “Safe Blue” state.

- The incumbent Republican governor, who may run for Senate, is very personally popular, and has done significant work to distance himself from the Republican Party on several social issues.

- The California recall election this year resulted in about the same margin of victory for the Democratic Governor that Biden had last year, showing that Dems have not lost as much energy and will to vote as we usually do during midterms.  In addition, turnout in suburban areas, which are some of the fastest growing areas in terms of Democratic power, was strong.

- You’re not wrong to be concerned about possibly losing this Senate seat, but there are a hell of a lot more useful things you could do than melt down in a GGD thread over it.  Having worked in elections so long, I can tell you that NOTHING is more frustrating for those of us out in the trenches than seeing people talk about the problem and not put in work to try to fix the problem.  I’m from Pennsylvania, where next year, we have the opportunity to flip one of our Senate seats from red to blue, and we have the opportunity to do it with a candidate of color, a female candidate, or a queer candidate (all of whom have already announced their campaigns).  I would appreciate all the help you could give, so rather than doom-scrolling, please check out Malcolm Kenyatta, Val Arkoosh, or any of the other great candidates we have running for other seats.  Get involved in your local elections; they’re where you train future Presidents and Senators.  Go register new voters, and follow up with them to make sure they vote.  If Millenials/Zoomers voted at anywhere near the rate that middle-aged and old people do, our country would be in such a better and more progressive place.

Tl;dr:  Chill out, a close race was expected, and go do constructive elections work before doom-posting on a social media site.  If you’re not sure how to get started, I can help you.   😸

These are all fair points, although they don't address the fact that Democratic leadership is still weak and clueless, and refuses to use its power competently or effectively when they have it.

The cynical take is it's because they're part of the corrupt corporate elites who don't actually want to fix anything because they benefit from it financially and politically.

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ctherainbow
49 minutes ago, Gagaloo911 said:

These are all fair points, although they don't address the fact that Democratic leadership is still weak and clueless, and refuses to use its power competently or effectively when they have it.

The cynical take is it's because they're part of the corrupt corporate elites who don't actually want to fix anything because they benefit from it financially and politically.

You're not wrong!  Having been at several PA Dems State Committee meetings, and part of a DNC convening, I know from experience that a lot of the people at the top are not great people.  For instance, Sharif Street, one of our 2022 PA Senate candidates, is also the vice chair of the state party, and has on several cases (just while I've been in meetings with him, who knows how many other times) suppressed progressives who were seeking to make changes to the state party structure.

But the solution is definitely not just to complain online.  Not saying that you specifically or anyone else in here specifically is only complaining and not doing anything constructive, but statistically speaking, there is at least one person in this thread who could vote but is not registered, and someone else is registered to vote but doesn't vote.  And they're more likely to be a young person who could make a progressive difference in not only public policy, but also within the Democratic Party structure.  Too many people don't bother to get involved, and the burden of holding together our democracy falls on fewer and fewer activists, until they give up because they're being crushed.

So if anyone's reading this who doesn't know how to get involved, or who thinks that they can't make a difference, please reach out!  I can help you get started and make a difference in your local community, which can have ripple effects up the chain of policy.   :hug: 

I'm talkin' 'bout forever, baby.
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ctherainbow

Also, just fyi, RealClearPolitics, the OP's source, is a relatively right-leaning poll aggregation site, that promotes a lot of right-wing media.  If you're interested in a more data-based polling site, FiveThirtyEight is a good resource.  If you're interested in a progressive view on polling, Daily Kos has some good content, though you will have to sift through some histrionic "reporting" as well.

I'm talkin' 'bout forever, baby.
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Gagaloo911
35 minutes ago, ctherainbow said:

You're not wrong!  Having been at several PA Dems State Committee meetings, and part of a DNC convening, I know from experience that a lot of the people at the top are not great people.  For instance, Sharif Street, one of our 2022 PA Senate candidates, is also the vice chair of the state party, and has on several cases (just while I've been in meetings with him, who knows how many other times) suppressed progressives who were seeking to make changes to the state party structure.

 

And it's this right here that disillusions so many people and make them wonder what the point is even for voting D when they're corrupt and part of what's wrong with the system, too.

I appreciate your encouragement though and see it how you do,although I won't lie I get discouraged too with things like this.

We need more unapologetic progressives who aren't afraid of making leadership enemies to energize and get voted in and start making more of a difference to enact progressive policies that will MATERALLY help the American people.

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Nickolas724

this is scary, if republicans take control again our democracy is at stake. i do agree the democratic party is a mess but they’re doing with what they can, the numbers that Americans elected them with. if democrats had big margins in congress things would be different and more progress would be possible. Do people really expect a split 50/50 senate and 4 seat lead in the house is enough to save the country from the last 4 years? 

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TortureMeOnReplay
36 minutes ago, Nickolas724 said:

this is scary, if republicans take control again our democracy is at stake. i do agree the democratic party is a mess but they’re doing with what they can, the numbers that Americans elected them with. if democrats had big margins in congress things would be different and more progress would be possible. Do people really expect a split 50/50 senate and 4 seat lead in the house is enough to save the country from the last 4 years? 

Republicans had 51 Senate seats 2016-2018 and 53 after. Did you see any of their legislation not pass during those periods? Aside from their version of the ACA? Trump had the energy and support of the people who voted for him in such a way that his bad-mouthing was threatening to Republicans that opposed him. Biden has a less than enthusiastic "at least I'm not Trump", which isn't going to whip many votes.

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I saw some analyst recently say it all comes down to 2nd amendment. They like guns, hate the thought of anyone restricting or taking away guns, and they vote. They show up and vote for single issue, to keep their guns. Dems should form a policy that is reasonable about gun safety/access/ownership  and not support any candidate that goes further restrictive than that. Even then,  there is so much misinformation that voters would be told lies by the other campaigns. They are so gullible to the lies. Rural areas may have very slow response by sheriff deputies, so they all own guns for home security. It's essential to rural homeowners and they despise people who threaten their gun ownership.

 

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Nickolas724
3 hours ago, TortureMeOnReplay said:

Republicans had 51 Senate seats 2016-2018 and 53 after. Did you see any of their legislation not pass during those periods? Aside from their version of the ACA? Trump had the energy and support of the people who voted for him in such a way that his bad-mouthing was threatening to Republicans that opposed him. Biden has a less than enthusiastic "at least I'm not Trump", which isn't going to whip many votes.

what legislation? all they passed was the tax cut and their main goal of repealing the aca failed bc infighting. every party has infighting and the democrats would a bit better off if they had 53 seats or even 51 but no they have 50 and 4 slim seats in the house which republicans had many many more

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PartySick
7 hours ago, HuffsAhoy said:

The left has become even more of a farce since Biden took office. They are clueless, lazy, and do nothing but run around and cry all day long. Their inability to actually work will be the reason America swings back to MAGA in 2022 and 2024. 

I would usually agree (even though I think of myself as a leftist, I also find their anti-Dem campaigns insufferable and more damaging than constrictive; see Jill Stein and Bernie Sanders' 2016 votes being enough for Hillary to beat Trump in the EC or a few of AOC's "squad" slamming Biden when his only opponent was Trump) BUT for our current situation, I'd blame the "establishment" Democrats. Like, the party itself.

The electorate is moving in a clear direction (left), even Republican voters support things like Biden's bill, the ACA, and the like, so there is no reason we should be losing seats other than their inability to compete at the organizational level with Repugnants, even while their party comes to terms with the Qanon/MAGA/Nazi takeover.

We can't get anything done because of the few (two mainly) more conservative Democrats who are holding up Biden's entire agenda which is hurting Democrats' approval as a whole across the country.

The Left™ may be an occasional thorn in the side during elections but that's not really what's causing an issue here imo.

Who's that Pokémon? It's the fabulous🌈 fire ferret🔥, dead💀 and risen👻, bitch💅
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PartySick
6 hours ago, Brainiac said:

All I'm going to say is we coulda had Bernie...

And he would be in the same predicament :laughga:

Conservative/centrist Dems in the senate wouldn't suddenly decide to support something just because it was Bernie's name instead of Biden :spin:

Biden isn't really the problem here. Well, not the most pressing one at least 

Who's that Pokémon? It's the fabulous🌈 fire ferret🔥, dead💀 and risen👻, bitch💅
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HuffsAhoy
6 hours ago, PartySick said:

I would usually agree (even though I think of myself as a leftist, I also find their anti-Dem campaigns insufferable and more damaging than constrictive; see Jill Stein and Bernie Sanders' 2016 votes being enough for Hillary to beat Trump in the EC or a few of AOC's "squad" slamming Biden when his only opponent was Trump) BUT for our current situation, I'd blame the "establishment" Democrats. Like, the party itself.

The electorate is moving in a clear direction (left), even Republican voters support things like Biden's bill, the ACA, and the like, so there is no reason we should be losing seats other than their inability to compete at the organizational level with Repugnants, even while their party comes to terms with the Qanon/MAGA/Nazi takeover.

We can't get anything done because of the few (two mainly) more conservative Democrats who are holding up Biden's entire agenda which is hurting Democrats' approval as a whole across the country.

The Left™ may be an occasional thorn in the side during elections but that's not really what's causing an issue here imo.

I'm just glad your demonic governor isn't running for President. He would totally have won and could you imagine the USA under his leadership :air:

 

Edited by HuffsAhoy
You remind me that it's such a wonderful thing to love.
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PartySick
11 minutes ago, HuffsAhoy said:

I'm just glad your demonic governor isn't running for President. He would totally have won and could you imagine the USA under his leadership :air:

 

God I know :toofunny:

Who's that Pokémon? It's the fabulous🌈 fire ferret🔥, dead💀 and risen👻, bitch💅
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