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politics

6/23 Primary Prediction Results (Pt. 1)

JRCF29
Posted (edited)

I made my predictions (relying on a mix of intuition, data, recent news developments, and a smidge of what everyone else was saying:huntyga:)

Now it's time to see how I did! Some of the results are available now, but others won't become available for about a week. Also: I will be counting anything within two (2) percentage points as a correct % prediction, and will be counting anytime I get the winning % right even if I got the losing %(s) wrong. Will update and bump when new results become available.

New York

District 2 Republican Primary 

Predicted Winner: Gabarino (60%)

 

District 9 Democratic Primary

Predicted Winner: Clarke (45%)

 

District 11 Republican Primary 

Predicted Winner: Malliotakis (70%)

Actual Winner: Malliotakis (70%)

Correctly Predicted Winner? Yes :vegas:

Correctly Predicted %? Yes :vegas:

District 14 Democratic Primary

Predicted Winner: Ocasio-Cortez (60-65%)

Actual Winner: Ocasio-Cortez (72%)

Correctly Predicted Winner? Yes:vegas:

Correctly Predicted %? No:huntyga:

 

District 15 Democratic Primary

Predicted WinnerRitchie Torres (38%)

 

District 16 Democratic Primary

Predicted Winner: Bowman (53%)

Actual Winner: Bowman (60%)

Correctly Predicted Winner? Yes:vegas:

Correctly Predicted %? No:huntyga:

 

Kentucky 

Kentucky Senate (Dem)

Predicted Winner: McGrath (48%)

Actual Winner: McGrath (45%)

Correctly Predicted Winner? Yes:vegas:

Correctly Predicted %? Close, but No:huntyga:

 

Correctly Predicted Winner: 4/4

Correctly Predicted %: 1/4

 

Edited by JRCF29
Don't Call Me Gaga
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NathanC

What are your predictions for McGrath and McConnell? :enigma: I care more about this than the presidential election.

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JRCF29
16 minutes ago, NathanC said:

What are your predictions for McGrath and McConnell? :enigma: I care more about this than the presidential election.

We don't even know if she's the nominee yet:messga: I will tell you that things are much, much closer than she would like against Booker given that not all of the Lexington-Fayette metro has yet reported :ohwell: 

My prediction remains the same regardless of who the Dem nominee is: Republican Hold

Don't Call Me Gaga

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Yxilon

I thought this was about music charts :ladyhaha:

Everything could be everything (it could mean anything)

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JRCF29

@POP2 @MISTER GEEMATICA @NathanC @frederiickx @StarstruckIllusion @Lion Heart @FudgeyBear @Buddy 

Spoiler

Kentucky Update: Charles Booker and Amy McGrath are about even in the results right now. Booker's huge margins in Fayette County and Jefferson County, high population and urban-majority areas of the state are helping him, but McGrath has so far been declared the winner in each of the precincts that have declared an official one according to the Washington Post (vote counts differ between sources, but Booker leads across-the-board). By Tuesday the results should be in focus.

New York Update: I didn't cover it, but Rep. Carolyn Maloney is in serious danger of losing her seat to her 2018 challenger, Suraj Patel. Patel's campaign site identifies him as a "progressive Obama-Democrat" (take from that what you will) and the centerpiece of his campaign is support for Bernie Sanders' single-payer healthcare plan. That race has not been called yet. 

New York Update 2: Engel is still not conceding defeat in his race, but I'm confident in calling it for Bowman in a blowout. In a victory post on social media Bowman said his message resonated in every corner of the district 

New York Update 3: Republican Chris Jacobs' team is celebrating his election to Congress in the conservative 27th District, previously represented by Rep. Chris Collins who left Congress due to legal troubles. Jacobs simultaneously won his party's primary to contest the seat in November for a full term.

 

Don't Call Me Gaga
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PartySick

C'mon, McGrath :enigma:

She has the resources to end Mitch :enigma:

Somebody please have mercy 'cause I JUST CAN'T TAKE IT!

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SineFromHell

I voted for AOC! I live in district 14 :ally:

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Buddy
2 hours ago, PartySick said:

C'mon, McGrath :enigma:

She has the resources to end Mitch :enigma:

:saladga:

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PartySick
15 minutes ago, Buddy said:

:saladga:

If it makes you feel any better, my Floridian opinion on the Kentucky primary election is irrelevant :enigma:

Somebody please have mercy 'cause I JUST CAN'T TAKE IT!
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Buddy
20 minutes ago, PartySick said:

If it makes you feel any better, my Floridian opinion on the Kentucky primary election is irrelevant :enigma:

Good

I don't want any of y'all voting for someone who calls themself a "Trump Democrat" :madge:

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StarstruckIllusion
51 minutes ago, Buddy said:

Good

I don't want any of y'all voting for someone who calls themself a "Trump Democrat:madge:

The way she’s probably a fall guy for Mitch. 
What Democrat is dumb enough to be like “I stan Trump...” well this is one of many reasons why she’s currently tanking...

AOC, Mondaire and Bowman tho... whew chile progressives made some points 😋😋 The Bernieprint <3

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JRCF29
20 minutes ago, StarstruckIllusion said:

well this is one of many reasons why she’s currently tanking

I wouldn’t say she’s tanking :derpga:

It is certainly too close for comfort at this point. Regardless of who wins, a large portion of the base is going to be frustrated and even angry. It doesn’t look like either one is going to crack 45% let alone >50%. There’s a bunch of low-profile candidates running so whoever wins will probably be able to unveil a list of endorsements from at least some of them. 
 

to @PartySick point I do think McGrath gives Kentucky Democrats the best chance of beating McConnell (medicate-for-all, green energy, marijuana legalization*in Kentucky?:awkney:), but as I continue to say, the race is really a long-shot for any Democrat. 
 

Kentucky only allows CBD oil, not even full medical marijuana, so I’m not sure how that’s going to play. McGrath won’t commit to legalizing it recreationally, but it s front and center on Booker’s campaign “issues” page.

 

Disclaimer: I am 17 and I’m not a political science expert (yet:ally:) so plz don’t be mad if I get stuff wrong 

Don't Call Me Gaga

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PartySick
13 minutes ago, JRCF29 said:

I do think McGrath gives Kentucky Democrats the best chance of beating McConnell (medicate-for-all, green energy, marijuana legalization*in Kentucky?:awkney:)

Yeah, the only thing I heard about him was that he was progressive. Considering the goal is to #DitchMitch, I'd say a middle ground veteran is the better option :spin:

I'd rather have a chance at a functional life boat than decide to go down with the ship because the life boats aren't up to my standards :spin:

Let's run progressives against centrists, not against conservatives, in red states :poot:

Somebody please have mercy 'cause I JUST CAN'T TAKE IT!

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JRCF29
5 minutes ago, PartySick said:

Let's run progressives against centrists, not against conservatives, in red states :poot:

I mean, you’ve just described the Booker/McGrath race:ladyhaha: but I know what you mean 

quite frankly it’s best to run progressives (from a progressive point of view, that is) in reliably Democratic House districts (NY-16, for example) where voters are likely to vote for whoever is on that party line in the election. I would advise progressives against running an Ocasio-Cortez in a battleground district like, say, NY-2

Don't Call Me Gaga

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