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New Iowa poll shows Biden leading Dem field

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PoshLife

Monmouth University has released a new poll showing Vice President Biden at 24 percent among likely Iowa caucusgoers. Sen. Sanders is in second place at 18%, Mayor Buttigieg is at 17%, Sen. Warren is at 15%, and Sen. Klobuchar is at 8%. This represents a five-point jump for both Biden and Sanders from Monmouth's previous Iowa poll (taken in November), while Buttigieg has fallen five points and Warren has fallen three.

This result is notable as a few days ago the Des Moines Register released a poll showing a tighter race, with Sanders leading the field at 20 percent, followed by Warren (17%), Buttigieg (16%) and Biden (15%).

It isn't usually fruitful to compare polls from different pollsters, though, since every pollster has a house effect (which isn't to say either poll is biased--it's more complicated than that). I would take both polls to mean that Iowa remains fairly close, but I think this poll counteracts any argument that Sanders has the indisputable momentum in the first caucus state. Biden, for his part, had a well-received debate performance in December and has gotten several high-profile endorsements including a Member of Congress from Iowa (Abby Finkenauer).

FiveThirtyEight currently forecasts Biden winning Iowa with about 26% of the vote, with Sanders projected to get 25%. As a reminder, the Dem party awards delegates proportionally, so you'll get delegates as long as you get at least 15% of the vote.

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JusKeepBreathin

Sooooooo tired of polls. 

Let's vote already. 

Edited by JusKeepBreathin
"Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." -Martin Luther King Jr.

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Chickens in Malibu

Warren should withdraw.

We don't have time to split the vote now. Let Bernie win.

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JusKeepBreathin
56 minutes ago, Chickens in Malibu said:

Warren should withdraw.

We don't have time to split the vote now. Let Bernie win.

Nope. Not with Bernie's smear campaign against her. Now is her time to mobilize against the kind of person he really is. 

Edited by JusKeepBreathin
"Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." -Martin Luther King Jr.
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Fish

Bernie for the win! As a Canadian i will be closely following this race. 

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Whispering

Iowa is such a toss up. It is interesting to watch, that’s fur sure.

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tomsches

How is that possible though? Everybody seems to hate him.

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Whispering
1 minute ago, tomsches said:

How is that possible though? Everybody seems to hate him.

Twitter world =/= Everybody 

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tomsches
3 minutes ago, Whispering said:

Twitter world =/= Everybody 

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derpmonster

From a NYT article,

"According to the Monmouth poll’s methodology description, the poll sample was drawn from “a list of registered Democratic and unaffiliated voters who voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections or the 2018 general election or have registered to vote since November 2018.”

The Selzer poll, on the other hand, includes all active registered voters in Iowa, which would allow a few groups who are excluded from the Monmouth poll: registered Republicans who say they’ll participate in the Democratic caucus, or voters who registered before 2018 and did not participate in either of the last two primaries or the 2018 general election. "

Monmouth is the one that showed Sanders leading. Selzer is the one that you posted.

Guess which one is probably more representative?

Join my FB Gaga sh*tposting group: I'll Never Release LG6 https://www.facebook.com/groups/185450449037808/
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