Can ARUTW Win SOTY?

[gypsy101 5,423]

4 hours ago, Natural Gas said:

they mostly care about mainstream music not good quality music  

cause a lady gaga soundtrack to a Bradley Cooper film that grossed over 400 million dollars isn’t mainstream or anything

[S0436 10,215]

I’m thinking ARUTW will receive about 10% of the votes for SOTY, but the soundtrack or INLA will get 90% of the votes in their category.  Basically I think one Grammy is in the bag.

[JustJames 669]

There is very little chance that this song wins; the noms across the board are totally confusing and the disparity between SOTY/ROTY is striking considering how much overlap there usually is. 

As is the case with all awards, commercial performance has no impact on the results. Peaking at #1 or #99 is insignificant; what is significant is the actual quality of the song's lyrics, melody, and composition. ROTY is much more interrelated with mainstream success, which is how ARUTW got this nomination in the first place.

Her team includes a country crossover with previous Grammy wins under her belt, and it seems nonsensical to bother with the nomination if they weren't planning to evaluate it fairly. Another GF nom and loss is not adding anything to Gaga's legacy. Considering the contenders, I think she would have had a much higher chance of winning Pop Solo, and precedence has been set to reward non-smashes there.

However, both Lizzo and Billie will be earning multiple awards that night, and based on the criteria, "bad guy" is a fairly weak competitor and both it and "Truth Hurts" seem more likely to be ROTY. The absence of Ms. Grande makes this more open than it would have otherwise, but "Lover" is my pick right now with "Someone You Loved" as backup and Gaga as spoiler.

[Magui 2,600]

Unfortunately from what i gathered here, the song didn't had impact on US radios and wasn't released has a single. For instance, the few times i listen to radio in my country, i always manage to listen ARUTW, the song is still played regularly. Bad Guy was everywhere too. Lover i actually didn't manage to catch it on the radio here yet. Anyways, given the popularity of the songs in America and the artists, would say that Taylor will probably win this one. Maybe Billie. I'm happy that at least it was nominated. 

[AmericanxDream 2,049]

[Mr S 7,618]

There is next to zero chance of a win and anyone who says otherwise outside this board will sound like a delusional Stan so please don't.

[Creyk 16,836]

she can and she will

[Miel 15,009]

I don't think there's a high chance, but I think there's a chance.

The biggest factor that might give it a shot at winning is a split in votes. Its acclaim in reception might help it a tad bit, too.

[Charles 1989 230]

I really really really hope so

[jacs vs looser 2,719]

Ok, so here's the deal:

1. Statistically speaking, Gaga has won around 1/3 of Grammy nominations
2. She has never won a general field Grammy
3. In the last decade, Grammy winers for SoTY have all been Top 5 hits.
4. She's running against strong, and very popular competition.

Conclussion: She will the Soundtrack category only.
 

[FameHookah 4,572]

Doubt it, but after that Joanne Win.. idk that was so weird...

[NightStar 312]

Well, the Grammy awards are all about how the Academy Members vote. Over the course of the previous five years, they voted Childish Gambino, Bruno Mars, Adele, Ed Sheeran, Sam Smith and Lorde for Song of the Year. So, even though commercial success and mainstream appeal are not supposed to be the merit of this category, the winners in 2014-2019 were rather mainstream, which casts a shadow on the chance of Gaga snatching with "Always Remember Us This Way". I'd say it's gonna be either Billie or Tanya Tucker due to the power of country lobby.  

[Gypsy 3,826]

I 95% doubt she will be winning anything 

[derpmonster 22,412]

On 11/20/2019 at 6:24 AM, Levels said:

Gaga will NEVER win a General Field Grammy. Just accept it and move on.

After GUY, even fans thought her commercial performance era was over. After Perfect Illusion didn't go Top 10, fans said we should accept she'll never have another Top 10. Million Reasons  went #4. Y'all said it was only luck because of the Super Bowl (never mind how no other SB performer since then has managed it). After The Cure, we hoped Shallow would crack Top 40. We hoped ASIB would go #1 instead of trench because soundtracks always bomb. We thought ASIB would be 60-70 on Rotten Tomatoes. 

Everything in the era surpassed our expectations. The ASIB era had awful timing with regard to awards. If it had been released slightly earlier, Shallow would be around long enough to be SOTY. When voting happened, it was just a few months old. Not an inspiring choice for SOTY. They didn't promote any song after Shallow, so it was hard to keep looking at ASIB as this year's album. If released earlier, it could've won AOTY last year. 

Still, the point is she's capable of pleasantly surprising everyone. We'll see. 

[derpmonster 22,412]

On 11/20/2019 at 11:23 AM, Rio said:

Maybe. But the GRAMMYs don't always award talent, as seen last year when they awarded inclusion over talent (This Is America stealing SOTY from Shallow).

This is America isn't my favorite song but it had an important message. 

As a song, most GP members liked Rolling in the Deep better. Imagine (theoretically) if Born This Way won SOTY over that (in our dreams lol) - people could say that it's inclusion over talent. Maybe, but it was important. 

I know the Shallow loss hurts but we literally got the most awarded song of all time and like Beyonka said, "The reality is, sometimes you lose."