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GoldDerby predicts Album of the Year for Gaga and Bradley

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Chickens in Malibu
3 minutes ago, Gagaloo92 said:

Well, it's over :noparty:

I swear anytime they say she'll win something it ends up not happening 

They're predicting a nomination not a win.

Last year they predicted SoTY and RoTY for Shallow and it happened. In 2018 they did predict a SoTY nod for "Million Reasons" but it didn't happen though.

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Aquarius
11 minutes ago, Chickens in Malibu said:

Nah doubt it.

Billie Eilish is competitive. Ariana's hype died down. All of her recent releases flopped hard. I mean her soundtrack released last week moved like 15k lol?

 

hope ur right

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Harry
16 hours ago, PACGAGA said:

Beerbongs and Bentleys was nominated with a 51 MC score, so it doesn't matter. I don't think he's happening too anyway but he'll probably be included to make the list more diverse.

That at least makes a bit of sense because it was a really popular album and had big hits but Khalid's album just... doesn't? It's very weird

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JustJames

There's NO way that Lady Gaga isn't getting a minimum of 2 nominations for AOTY and Best Music Compilation; the latter is an almost guaranteed win - like, had ARUTW been released worldwide with MV in March 2019, ASIB would be the leading contender for AOTY and ARUTW a lock for a ROTY, SOTY, and Pop Solo nom, so what other soundtrack is coming close to it in a category reserved for soundtracks alone? This has been hers to lose since its release.

It should win AOTY having overcome the barriers of being a sountrack, the quality and success of its lead single, its cross-genre appeal, its acclaim, and the success of its 2 other limited-release singles (charting in the top 50) without radio play or promo. Billie Eilish is the obvious choice for BNA and Best Pop Vocal Album, but its tracks have had as little traction as ASIB with full promo and push from her label ("bad guy" being the only real success), and the style of the album - while fresh - is too new for it to be rewarded beyond those categories IMO. "Truth Hurts" looks like a likely winner for ROTY and/or BPVP, and it seems like "Someone You Loved" is getting pushed for SOTY. I'd predict an Ariana win for ROTY or BPVP, but she submitted "7 Rings" and I just don't see them rewarding a song that sampled so much of its content (similar case for the album itself) and had such unattractive lyrical content.

My Predictions: 1 = winner, 2 = backup, 3 = spoiler

AOTY

1. ASIB, Lady Gaga

2. WWAFWDWG, Billie Eilish

3. NFR, Lana Del Rey

ROTY

1. Truth Hurts, Lizzo

2. bad guy, Billie Eilish

3. 7 Rings, Ariana Grande

SOTY

1. Someone You Loved, Lewis Capaldi

2. thank u, next, Ariana Grande

3. Truth Hurts, Lizzo

Best Pop Vocal Album

1. WWAFAWDWG, Billie Eilish

2. Cuz I  Love You, Lizzo

3. thank u, next, Ariana Grande / NFR, Lana del Rey

Best Pop Vocal Performance

1. Truth Hurts, Lizzo

2. bad guy, Billie Eilish

3. Someone You Loved, Lewis Capaldi

nominated: ARUTW, Lady Gaga

Best Music Compilation

1. ASIB, Lady Gaga

Best Song Written for Visual Media

1. INLA, Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper

2. Spirit, Beyonce

3. Sunflower, Swae Lee and Post Malone

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Bradley
11 hours ago, JustJames said:

Best Song Written for Visual Media

1. INLA, Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper

2. Spirit, Beyonce

3. Sunflower, Swae Lee and Post Malone

I agree with most of your predictions but I feel like Sunflower is a really huge threat.

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JustJames
9 hours ago, Bradley said:

I agree with most of your predictions but I feel like Sunflower is a really huge threat.

I can totally see this happening, but hope it doesn't.

I wish I could find an official criteria for this category; at one time, I read that the award considers how the song related to the actual visual medium it was written for. If that is the case, there is no argument that 'Sunflower' was more relevant and pivotal than 'INLA' was for ASIB. 

Given that this is a separate category regardless, the phrasing "written FOR visual media" makes me feel like a song that was released from Post Malone - the artist - as a single from his actual LP, and has little lyrical content that is intertwined with the plot of Spiderman has to be considered. 'INLA,' on the other hand, was written FOR ASIB and not included nor released from any artist's LP, and the choice to submit the film version vs. the extended version makes me think that the relationship between the song and film will be important. 

Even if you take away any consideration of the films, we are talking about an autotuned trendy pop song vs. a live-recorded emotional power ballad. 'Sunflower' will get its due(s) in other categories -- nominations in ROTY, SOTY, and a likely win in Pop Group/Duo, but leave aside the success of 'Shallow' for a moment and remember that both the ASIB soundtrack and 'INLA' are eligible for *this* year's awards show; have there been more than a handful of other song and soundtracks that have had such an impact that extended into the popular culture as with ASIB and its top 3 songs?

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