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Trudeau 60% Likely To Be Re-Elected

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Economy

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

 

According to CBC the largest Canadian News network, with a compiled number of different polls they have reached an estimated probability of the outcomes for election

 

- 49% Chance Trudeau and Liberals will win but with minority Government 

- 11% Chance Trudeau will win enough seats for majority Government 

-37% Chance Conservatives will win by minority

-2% Chance Conservatives will win by majority

-1% chance of another unseen outcome

 

Interesting to note Conservatives are expected to win popular vote but not the most seats

 

A further rare turn of events, the  left-wing NDP as usual are expected to get the 3rd most in popular votes but due to higher concentrations of supporters by region, the Bloc Quebecois may get the 3rd most seats this time even tho both the NDP and Green party are expected to get more general votes

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March34th

i really don't like trudeau as a politician but i'd rather he get re-elected than the conservatives winning. although i'm voting green:party::party::party:

'Don't it beat a slow dance to death?
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SEANGT

Just to reiterate for anyone reading -- probability isn't the same as his polling numbers. 

In 2016 the american election was close, but hillary had enough of a polliing lead of like...5% nationwide that her probability of winning was like 80%. Just so happened that the outcome was part of the 20% of possible outcomes. 

Anyway I hope he wins so I don't have to worry about Canada along with the rest of the world. lol

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AJRocketMan
31 minutes ago, SEANGT said:

Just to reiterate for anyone reading -- probability isn't the same as his polling numbers. 

In 2016 the american election was close, but hillary had enough of a polliing lead of like...5% nationwide that her probability of winning was like 80%. Just so happened that the outcome was part of the 20% of possible outcomes. 

Anyway I hope he wins so I don't have to worry about Canada along with the rest of the world. lol

Hillary won the popular vote though, so while Donald Trump won, most people didn’t want him, and he was elected on unwelcome terms.

I’m a Bad Kid and I will survive

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Economy
28 minutes ago, SEANGT said:

Just to reiterate for anyone reading -- probability isn't the same as his polling numbers. 

In 2016 the american election was close, but hillary had enough of a polliing lead of like...5% nationwide that her probability of winning was like 80%. Just so happened that the outcome was part of the 20% of possible outcomes. 

Anyway I hope he wins so I don't have to worry about Canada along with the rest of the world. lol

They definitely are going district by district and seat by seat on the probabilities

 

cuz even tho Conservatives likely have an edge on popular vote it looks like Liberals still have a likely edge on seats which is what counts

 

for example the Bloc Quebecois have almost no voter support, but the few that do support them are concentrated in the same areas (mostly pockets in Quebec) which makes seat wins possible

 

The NDP for example has the support of like a fifth of the population but its spread out Nationally and few areas have enough concentration for many seats to be won

 

im surprised the NDP are polling so poorly tho. Usually they pull better numbers. They are expected to possibly loose half their current seats this election :rip:

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Economy
2 minutes ago, AJRocketMan said:

Hillary won the popular vote though, so while Donald Trump won, most people didn’t want him, and he was elected on unwelcome terms.

Well thats how elections work

 

the liberals arent forecast to win the popular vote here but likely will still win election

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JustinTrudeau

In before the election this Monday looks like this for the Liberals...

source.gif

Edited by JustinTrudeau
I fell down the stairs once as an actor.
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Economy
1 hour ago, JustinTrudeau said:

In before the election this Monday looks like this for the Liberals...

source.gif

Yeah in rooting for the Liberals so hopefully they dont loose

 

not cuz i love Trudeau or the Liberals but the main alternatives (Conservatives and NDP i think are worse)

 

i often support the Conservatives but this time around they are promissing too many things i think are wasteful spending not to mention some bad ideas for the housing market in my opinion :shrug:

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JustinTrudeau
42 minutes ago, Economy said:

Yeah in rooting for the Liberals so hopefully they dont loose

 

not cuz i love Trudeau or the Liberals but the main alternatives (Conservatives and NDP i think are worse)

 

i often support the Conservatives but this time around they are promissing too many things i think are wasteful spending not to mention some bad ideas for the housing market in my opinion :shrug:

Even with the polls, I honestly have no idea where we will go. Guess we have 3 more days before we find out :duck: 

Also, I wish people vote more. There are so many advanced polls, and ways to mail in your vote. Universities had polling stations pop up (my university included) which made it easier for students/young people to show up. If we have a higher voting turnout, the results would be different. But atlas... I might see that 60% turnout rate again >:(

I fell down the stairs once as an actor.
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Economy
2 hours ago, JustinTrudeau said:

Even with the polls, I honestly have no idea where we will go. Guess we have 3 more days before we find out :duck: 

Also, I wish people vote more. There are so many advanced polls, and ways to mail in your vote. Universities had polling stations pop up (my university included) which made it easier for students/young people to show up. If we have a higher voting turnout, the results would be different. But atlas... I might see that 60% turnout rate again >:(

Its such a tight race so yeah its hard to know

 

Polls are considered to have a margin for error of up to 3% 19 times out of 20

 

The race is so tight that its well within the margin of error for polls so we could get some unexpected results

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