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Signs point to Trump win in 2020

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The13thNote

I really think Mayor Pete might actually beat Trump, and I say this as a (former) Trump supporter. 

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Concertaholic
16 hours ago, shoful said:

I told everyone he will win. And told you allto bookmark me in another thread. Well you can bookmark here. Trump will win a second term

With that attitude he will! What are you doing to insure he doesn't get reelected? Volunteer for a candidate and knock on doors. Reach out to friends and family and make sure they understand the importance of voting.

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AJRocketMan

Oh god, I hope not. I would rather have a libertarian or third party candidate win for once. I voted for Gary Johnson in 2016 because I believed in him. I wish more people believed in third parties.

I’m a Bad Kid and I will survive

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Ziggy
16 hours ago, PunkTheFunk said:

A few months before the 2016 election I posted this thread about a professor who had correctly predicted every presidential election (popular vote) for the past 30 years. His method also retroactively accounts for elections from 1860 to 1980, with the exception of the election of 1876 (which was a weird one).

"Professor Allan Lichtman, who wrote the book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House," uses a series of true/false statements to determine his predictions. He considers things like incumbency, the economy, social unrest, scandals, and charisma to figure out which way the election is likely to go."

Screen-Shot-2016-05-11-at-2.47.11-PM.png&w=1484&op=resize&opt=1&filter=antialias

Lichtman told The Post how the system works:

"The keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of 'true' always favors the reelection of the party holding the White House, in this case the Democrats. And the keys are phrased to reflect the basic theory that elections are primarily judgments on the performance of the party holding the White House. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false — that is, they go against the party in power — they lose. If fewer than six are false, the party in power gets four more years."

He predicted Trump would win in 2016 and many were skeptical, but look where we are now :triggered:

Anyway, I was thinking: if we looked at the 13 keys for the next election, who wins?

  Hide contents

From https://peoplesvoiceradio.com/a-way-too-early-look-at-allan-lichtmans-13-keys-to-the-white-house-in-2020/

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

 False. In 2016 the Democrats retook the House of Representatives.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

True, at least so far. Lichtman defines “no serious contest” as one in which the incumbent party’s nominee holds two-thirds of the convention delegates at the start of the convention. Even if a President Pence is the Republican nominee, I’d expect no serious convention challenge.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

True. This key will also be true if Trump is deposed or resigns and Pence becomes president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

Unknown and could go either way. This key is defined as true if a single third-party candidate gets at least 5% of the vote. (See here for an explanation of Lichtman’s modification of this key with respect to the 2016 election.)

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

True so far.

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

True.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

True. Consider the Trump administration’s China and trade policies.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

False. I would discount the great unrest in the press as signalling great general unrest, but still, the desire for change in the electorate is as this cycle as it was in 2016. Both party’s candidates will have to be, or pretend to be, for “change.” In Trump’s case, the pitch will be “I have more of the job of changing things left to do.”

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

False. The genuine scandals, as opposed to general media Trumpophobia, are numerous and serious.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

True so far, at least in the eyes of the public. Domestic concerns dominate the polling on “most important issues.”

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

False so far. Could a viable treaty with North Korea turn this key to True? That’s uncertain, just as it’s uncertain that Trump’s war cabinet would allow such a treaty to be signed.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

True. While Lichtman’s models and standards for presidential charisma are the two Roosevelts, John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, Trump is as wildly popular among his supporters as he is unpopular among his opponents. Let’s mark this True.

(In the so-far unlikely event that Mike Pence or anyone other than Trump is the nominee, this key becomes False.)

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

False so far.

So that leaves us with  only 5 false statements,  which means Trump gets four more years.

giphy.gif

Lol I wouldn’t go true on charisma because he has some of the lowest approval ratings of any modern president and that only hasn’t dipped among diehards. He’s alienating pretty much everyone else who supported him. Look no further than the governor’s races in 2018 from the battleground states he won in 2016. They largely went blue.

 

he could still be re-elected but let’s remember to contextuakize a bit here and also remember we’re still a LONG ways away from the race being hot. Democrat debates haven’t even started yet!

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Ziggy
5 hours ago, Popo said:

he's underwater in the swing states where he won by small margins, independents who disliked both hillary and trump went largely for trump in '16. People who voted for him chose the insurgent candidate with no voting record over a  career politician, they were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  A recent poll conducted by Washington Post showed 55% of respondents definitely NOT voting for trump.

He's doubling down on his policies only to appeal to his base and not doing much to reach out to and convince the skeptics to vote for him. This is reflected in his weighted approval rating where it has fluctuated around the low 40's. Under similar economic conditions, past presidents have been enjoying high approval ratings but trump struggles to inch into the mid-40's, you can only imagine how bad his approval will tank if the economy tanks. 

And he’s also done nothing that he said he would. Every single thing he’s tried has failed aside from SCOTUS appointments but that’s not really a policy plank so much as a constitutional requirement of the presidency lol

 

taxes? That wasn’t trump; that’s been the republican sexxx dream for decades. He’s just a patsy for the poor legislation of the GOP and Mitch McConnell.

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Miracle
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, ProjectJoanne said:

I'm just talking about a president in general, to the basic American, the president does literally SO LITTLE to people's lives, how can you not see that? :triggered:

Tell that to a hispanic woman, or the economy in 10 years.

 

 

Edited by Miracle

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ProjectJoanne
1 hour ago, Miracle said:

Tell that to a hispanic woman, or the economy in 10 years.

 

 

Tell yourself to enjoy life.

DCgaga
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Nemo
19 hours ago, PunkTheFunk said:

I disagree. 

10. There haven't been any foreign/military failures during Trump's term. A true failure would be something like the Vietnam War, the Invasion of Iraq, or the Bay of Pigs.

12. How is Trump not charismatic? Stupid yes, but charismatic, definitely. His charisma is what helps his supporters overlook just about everything else that's wrong with him.

10. Nothing of that scale yet, but his interactions with Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, etc. have been widely seen as humiliating.

12, He may be appealing to his supporters, but he's actively repulsive to an even larger group. I think of "charismatic" as a more broadly-recognized kind of appeal... I dunno,

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ltlmnstr
4 hours ago, Miracle said:

Tell that to a hispanic woman, or the economy in 10 years.

 

 

They’re not gonna care. People like that don’t care about anything but themselves. That’s why they can just say ~just enjoy life.~ Like anyone can ~just enjoy life~ when taxes are being used for homophobia and transphobic rhetoric. It’s a very privileged bubble.

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shoful
4 hours ago, Concertaholic said:

With that attitude he will! What are you doing to insure he doesn't get reelected? Volunteer for a candidate and knock on doors. Reach out to friends and family and make sure they understand the importance of voting.

Um I want him to win... Lol I’m campaigning for him so that he will win

"My name is Dita, I'll be your Mistress tonight..."

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PoshLife

This is interesting. That said, I would disagree on the foreign affairs piece. Trump's twitter trade war with China and other countries is a MAJOR failure so far. Farmers out in the Midwest (including some politically important states) are really hurting because they can't export their products due to retaliatory tariffs. They are already angry that this trade war seems to have no end, and Trump just ratcheted it up with China again this week. Their products are sitting in bins rotting while their families have to buy groceries on trade mitigation payments. It's an outrage. So no, the crops aren't being eaten up by locusts (CC: @Maleficent) but they are being wasted in another way. This is a major problem folks sitting pretty on the coasts aren't seeing, and there will be hell to pay next November if things continue this way.

I have to be less of a Ruby and more of a Marie
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Queen Artpop
On 5/8/2019 at 3:15 PM, Miracle said:

Tell that to a hispanic woman, or the economy in 10 years.

 

 

You guys know the economy isn't controlled by who's the president right

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