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New Billboard changes could negatively impact Gaga in the US


Klou

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Spanish Eyes

Gaga could take advantage of the streaming. Lyric videos and music videos should help, especially if they are really popular like Judas and not like The Edge of Glory. :flop:

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Monster Helper

Gaga could take advantage of the streaming. Lyric videos and music videos should help, especially if they are really popular like Judas and not like The Edge of Glory. :flop:

Why Gaga dont do lyric videos like Katy for her songs?

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On the formula:

"points = 62% x sales/K + 80% x airplay (A.I. millions) + 5% x on demand streaming/K"

That is an empirical formula with sales vs airplay vs streaming set so that the resulting points best match the actual billboard chart positions.

Billboard haven't published the 'real' formula

By this, if you add the points of the top 30 or so songs you get:

from sales 2013 points (45%), from airplay 1848 points (41%), from streaming (14%), so sales still has slightly the highest contribution but a song with sales+airplay will have a huge charting advantage over a song with sales alone.

In the old formula, before Billboard changed it, it would be 3247 points from sales (64%) and 1848 points from airplay (36%)

For a debut to get #1 this week on sales alone (320 points) it would need to sell 320/62% = 520K sales - a tough ask

By the old formula it would have needed to sell 360K - which is much easier

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Spanish Eyes

On the formula:

"points = 62% x sales/K + 80% x airplay (A.I. millions) + 5% x on demand streaming/K"

That is an empirical formula with sales vs airplay vs streaming set so that the resulting points best match the actual billboard chart positions.

Billboard haven't published the 'real' formula

By this, if you add the points of the top 30 or so songs you get:

from sales 2013 points (45%), from airplay 1848 points (41%), from streaming (14%), so sales still has slightly the highest contribution but a song with sales+airplay will have a huge charting advantage over a song with sales alone.

In the old formula, before Billboard changed it, it would be 3247 points from sales (64%) and 1848 points from airplay (36%)

For a debut to get #1 this week on sales alone (320 points) it would need to sell 320/62% = 520K sales - a tough ask

By the old formula it would have needed to sell 360K - which is much easier

Hm. I realize this is all an estimate, but BTW sold in the 500's in its second charting week. Considering it managed around 400 ish in three days plus the extra 500 or so the following week, there's still a good chance Gaga can debut at number one again. If radio backs her up longer (and interscrope doesn't shoot themselves in the foot), then she could stay at number one for quite a while.

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Can someone do the math for Marry The Night? I'd love to see where it'd be if the new rules were applied. I absolutely hate this streaming crap. :pukey:

Figures I have for MTN Sales/K + Airplay (AI/m) = Points, #position for its 6 charting weeks (old formula)

34 + 29 = 63, #32 (Dec 9th 2011)

42 + 32 = 74, #29

35 + 35 = 70, #33

65 + 34 = 99, #39

75 + 33 = 108, #37

54 + 33 = 87, #39

It did more sales in the last three weeks (elevated by XMas gift cards), and got more points, but ended up with a lower chart position, caused by all the new year songs pushing it down.

You see how radio started to abandon it after week 3 even though sales were still rising. It's more normal to see the airplay peak long after the sales peak.

I guess since in weeks 2/3 the airplay was a high proportion of its points it would have charted similarly. In week three, I count 31 songs with a higher airplay (35m) than MTN and only 2 of those with poorer sales so it would still have charted around #30 that week by the new formula (assuming it had an average amount of streaming).

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The solution is simple: everyone buys a copy of the single, uses Spotify to listen to the song instead of iTunes, and requests the song like crazy on radio.

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heavymlover

Ugh, I hate this new rule.

Same 5 songs on the radio, literally. Just no...

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Arturo

I can't at people being rude. If you have nothing to contribute to this thread then kindly leave.

This is important to Gaga's success and you wouldn't be so happy if Gaga was flopping, huh?

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On the formula:

"points = 62% x sales/K + 80% x airplay (A.I. millions) + 5% x on demand streaming/K"

That is an empirical formula with sales vs airplay vs streaming set so that the resulting points best match the actual billboard chart positions.

Billboard haven't published the 'real' formula

By this, if you add the points of the top 30 or so songs you get:

from sales 2013 points (45%), from airplay 1848 points (41%), from streaming (14%), so sales still has slightly the highest contribution but a song with sales+airplay will have a huge charting advantage over a song with sales alone.

In the old formula, before Billboard changed it, it would be 3247 points from sales (64%) and 1848 points from airplay (36%)

For a debut to get #1 this week on sales alone (320 points) it would need to sell 320/62% = 520K sales - a tough ask

By the old formula it would have needed to sell 360K - which is much easier

Thank you so much Magoo! I couldn't have attempted to explain this without you :) And thank you for clarifying the points/percentages :hug:

I can't at people being rude. If you have nothing to contribute to this thread then kindly leave.

This is important to Gaga's success and you wouldn't be so happy if Gaga was flopping, huh?

It's ok. Just don't expect any complaining from them in the future if Gaga's songs ever flop :)
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I'm scared that Gaga won't debut at #1...

I believe she will as long as her first single is good and racks up 550K+ sales in its first week :)
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