Latest Oscar predictions for A Star Is Born (AwardsCircuit)

[Bradley 54,919]

6 hours ago, Mirages said:

I'm talking about how Viola Davis in Fences and Dev Patel in Lion both submitted themselves for supporting categories, even though both of them were leads. They had better chances winning, and it resulted for Davis in a Golden Globe, an Oscar and a BAFTA and for Patel in a BAFTA. Davis submitted herself in supporting because shes been already nominated in lead and was the favorite to win but ended up losing it and theres only been one black woman to win an Oscar for leading performance since they've been giving them out. Even Denzel talked about how he was not happy with Davis submitting herself for supporting actress. Look it up!

I've seen Fences and Viola Davis was definitely a supporting role. Fences's only lead was Denzel Washington. I don't know why people keep saying Viola had a big role when it wasn't that big tbh. Also I've noticed how very few black women are nominated for a leading performance.

Dev Patel's decision however surprised me. I saw Lion too and I thought he was a lead actor.

[Mirages 20,259]

20 minutes ago, Bradley said:

I've seen Fences and Viola Davis was definitely a supporting role. Fences's only lead was Denzel Washington. I don't know why people keep saying Viola had a big role when it wasn't that big tbh. Also I've noticed how very few black women are nominated for a leading performance.

Dev Patel's decision however surprised me. I saw Lion too and I thought he was a lead actor.

I saw Fences too and I feel like her role could be considered both, but like I understand why she's put herself up for supporting....considering only Halle won the Oscar for lead actress it's really sad! Viola definitely deserved an Oscar for The Help.

Well look at how many people from India won an Oscar 

[nodandsmile 9,064]

5 hours ago, Mirages said:

I saw Fences too and I feel like her role could be considered both, but like I understand why she's put herself up for supporting....considering only Halle won the Oscar for lead actress it's really sad! Viola definitely deserved an Oscar for The Help.

Well look at how many people from India won an Oscar 

Yep her presence was really important too and I don't think it was secondary, she stole some of the key scenes ... but supporting actress was a sure win tbh ... and The Help my god that last scene "you're a godless woman" made me cry like a baby I swear!

[Ninten Ann 22]

Positivee

[Ninten Ann 22]

Snatch em awards

[Rudz Xinc 7,929]

Being nominated itself is an achievement. We should be happy even if she doesn't win.

[duckworth 2,948]

21 hours ago, Bradley said:

Best Original Song - 2nd place: http://www.awardscircuit.com/predictions-new/?category=original-song&award=oscars

Why is this second here? Is Sam Smith releasing a new soundtrack? 

[MarcusBones 3,343]

Not sure why they Predict Bohemian Rhapsody in the best original song category when it's a biopic about a musician..(hence, why would there be any original music???)

[Reality 65,696]

I think getting an Oscar for Best Lead Actress is sort of a stretch: I don't expect her to win that category. That being said, I will be extremely excited even if she's just nominated. This is her first leading role in a major motion picture, and I don't know how the Academy decides to pick their winners, but I assume those are points against her, no?

I lowkey do expect her to win the Best Song category, but we'll see... 

[Bebe 16,562]

It's great news, I can understand why she is being talked about for lead actress - but I do think her ratings will drop a little (at least until the film is released and hopefully her chances will rise again). Not saying this for any other reason than - we have little information right now other than a trailer and some Oscar contenders are on their way themselves, as they are released naturally their chances will be talked up more. 

Right now they have rightly called her as the wild card. There are some more established actresses who have previous nominations and wins coming out with projects - as we see those projects released I'm sure their chances will rise in terms of predictions, especially while we wait for ASIB to actually be released.

With those actresses it's easier to have an educated guess even when their films are not out yet. Their movies are being helmed by known directors (some like Steve McQueen have won best picture before) so people can be confident the film is going to be a strong contender in general + these actresses are well known and many have been nominated or have won before - so there is confidence that they can and likely will hold their own on the big screen.

These predictions for Best Actress for Gaga are harder. It's Bradley Cooper's first time directing, so although it's clear Warner Bro's are aiming for the Oscars,  we are a little in the dark in terms of HOW good he is. If he misses the mark, that really hurts the films chances in the big categories. Also, while Gaga has some acting experience, this is her major debut on the big screen which is different... This is her first major film role so again it's hard to make educated guesses at this point.

Once the film is released it will be interesting to see where she lands in terms of predictions for best actress.

I think her position as a favourite in Original Song is pretty safe. It's easier to predict success with that because it's a musical, Gaga is a well known and acclaimed song-writer, she has been nominated for an Oscar before in this category, we know she has been working with Diane Warren who is also a frequent nominee in this category. We can actually make an educated guess with this category, we have more to work with.



 

[Bradley 54,919]

13 hours ago, DAMN said:

Why is this second here? Is Sam Smith releasing a new soundtrack? 

2nd is not too bad. And the reality can be different from predictions. So if they push it harder than Mary Poppins does, they stand a chance at winning.

[Bradley 54,919]

11 hours ago, M Monstre said:

I think getting an Oscar for Best Lead Actress is sort of a stretch: I don't expect her to win that category. That being said, I will be extremely excited even if she's just nominated. This is her first leading role in a major motion picture, and I don't know how the Academy decides to pick their winners, but I assume those are points against her, no?

I lowkey do expect her to win the Best Song category, but we'll see... 

Yeah actually I've been reiterating for a lot of times that it's not really possible for Gaga to win Best Actress unless she does exceptionally well, and surprises the sh*t out of the whole god damn world.

We would only be aiming for a nomination which is enough for her to be referred to as an Academy Award nominee forever (this time for acting instead of music). So that's our goal here.

[MarcusBones 3,343]

3 minutes ago, Bradley said:

Yeah actually I've been reiterating for a lot of times that it's not really possible for Gaga to win Best Actress unless she does exceptionally well, and surprises the sh*t out of the whole god damn world.

We would only be aiming for a nomination which is enough for her to be referred to as an Academy Award nominee forever (this time for acting instead of music). So that's our goal here.

I wouldn’t say it’s a “stretch” there’s been instances where certain actors actresses and films have won in an upset. It could happen again- one never knows.

[Bradley 54,919]

11 hours ago, Fable said:

It's great news, I can understand why she is being talked about for lead actress - but I do think her ratings will drop a little (at least until the film is released and hopefully her chances will rise again). Not saying this for any other reason than - we have little information right now other than a trailer and some Oscar contenders are on their way themselves, as they are released naturally their chances will be talked up more. 

Right now they have rightly called her as the wild card. There are some more established actresses who have previous nominations and wins coming out with projects - as we see those projects released I'm sure their chances will rise in terms of predictions, especially while we wait for ASIB to actually be released.

With those actresses it's easier to have an educated guess even when their films are not out yet. Their movies are being helmed by known directors (some like Steve McQueen have won best picture before) so people can be confident the film is going to be a strong contender in general + these actresses are well known and many have been nominated or have won before - so there is confidence that they can and likely will hold their own on the big screen.

These predictions for Best Actress for Gaga are harder. It's Bradley Cooper's first time directing, so although it's clear Warner Bro's are aiming for the Oscars,  we are a little in the dark in terms of HOW good he is. If he misses the mark, that really hurts the films chances in the big categories. Also, while Gaga has some acting experience, this is her major debut on the big screen which is different... This is her first major film role so again it's hard to make educated guesses at this point.

Once the film is released it will be interesting to see where she lands in terms of predictions for best actress.

I think her position as a favourite in Original Song is pretty safe. It's easier to predict success with that because it's a musical, Gaga is a well known and acclaimed song-writer, she has been nominated for an Oscar before in this category, we know she has been working with Diane Warren who is also a frequent nominee in this category. We can actually make an educated guess with this category, we have more to work with.

You're right, she's actually up against many talented actresses who have been nominated or who have won before, and that makes it so wonderful how a first-time actress like Gaga is already competing against talents of such level. She rises to stardom in such a short amount of time and we owe that to great timing, great opportunities, great role and great content. I mean A Star Is Born is just perfect for her, it's designed for the awards from its onset and Warner and Bradley made it with these intentions in mind. A lot of her co-stars in AHS such as Matt Bomer, Sarah Paulson, Finn Wittrock, Wes Bentley are only cast in small movies or in supporting roles that have no chances at the Oscars at all and yet Gaga, a first-time movie actress is already in talks for the Oscars, that's truly wonderful if you ask me.

But you're right, once all the movies are released, predictions will get adjusted from there based on the actual performance we see in the movies. I think Gaga will drop from #2 to perhaps #4 or #5 which is dangerous territory, and I hope it is enough to secure a nomination for her. But hey, we haven't even seen the second trailer yet, maybe she will surprise us with good acting. We've heard from critics that there are a lot of dramatic scenes in the movie and maybe she will surprise us with good acting and her predicted positions won't change or will even rise. GoldDerby has yet to make their predictions and they usually are fairly accurate in their predictions so I'm excited to see where they place Gaga at.

[Reality 65,696]

1 hour ago, Bradley said:

Yeah actually I've been reiterating for a lot of times that it's not really possible for Gaga to win Best Actress unless she does exceptionally well, and surprises the sh*t out of the whole god damn world.

We would only be aiming for a nomination which is enough for her to be referred to as an Academy Award nominee forever (this time for acting instead of music). So that's our goal here.

1

I definitely agree. I'm not expecting Gaga herself to win anything, though I do think the movie might. Honestly, I'd be happy with just a nomination. Even if she doesn't win, she would be referred to as a nominee, which is a pretty big deal (like you said).

Hopefully the rest of GGD will understand that