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2018 Russia Presidential Election

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bumblebee   Paws Up 2,525
bumblebee

Putin has just announced he will run for president and there is 95% chance he will be reelected :air:

I will provide a report soon :selena:

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bumblebee   Paws Up 2,525
bumblebee

OFFICIAL: PUTIN CONFIRMS HE'S CONDUCTING A REVERSE WARHOLIAN DEMOCRATIC EXPEDITION

by Bumblebee 

A sigh of relief was emitted by the top Russian official as President Putin announced his fourth bid for the country's top office. Meeting the crowd of emloyees at the "GAZ" factory in the city of Nizhniy Novgorod, President Putin was asked about his decision by one of the guests of the events. "I will propose my candidacy for the position of the president of Russia," Putin confirmed. "And I can't think of a better place to announce it than here, at this factory." The crowd cheered. [ YASS PUTIN YOU LOOK BEAUTIFUL. OH MY GOD YASSS PUTIN YOU LOOK SO GOOD! ]

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However expected the decision arrives for the western media, Russian political insiders (twitter insiders are quivering) were visibly slow to react. Rumors have been circulating among the political analysts circles that suggested the President would step down and endorse another figure, his long-time KGB friend Sergey Chemezov, who serves as CEO in Russia's government-owned company Rostec (the country's top weapons' exporter with $19 bn. revenue). 

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Indeed, the ten-year anniversary celebration of Rostec is scheduled for tomorrow, and President Putin is among the guests of the party, as well as Mr. Chemezov. According to those speculations Putin was meant to endorse Chemezov's bid for presidency at the event. It turns out the rumours were false. 

Anyway, neither Chemezov nor Medvedev have managed to convince the President to step down, and Putin seemed firm in his intention to run for the top office for the fourth time. His first two terms lasted from 2000 to 2008, and he was elected for the third time in 2012.

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Ironically, Nizhniy Novgorod, a city with a population of 1,300,000 people, was the center of the country's political scrutiny today, as two out of three major candidates were there (well, Navalny's campaign director is in prison in Novgorod, so there were sort of three anyway :air: ). While Putin enjoyed his scheduled visit to the "GAZ" factory, Ksenia Sobchak, 36, Russian TV host and political journalist, was opening her campaign office there.

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When asked by the journalists about Putin's announcement to run for the top office, Mrs. Sobchak gave a rather mocking response:

"I'm sure, if we believe that changes are real, they will happen and they will become in our reach. As for Putin's announcement, let me ask you something. Was it in any way a plot twist for you? You know, on my way to this hall, I got surrounded by journalists who were asking me to comment his announcement. Dear friends, what's here for me to comment? Did somebody really believe he was going to act differently? We all know it too well to pretend. We know that if we keep doing nothing, then Putin will run in 2018, he will keep running again and again, he will be running so long as his health condition permits him to do so. Did we have any doubts? Like is there a single person in this hall who doubted he'd run again? Is there a single person in this room who was surprised by his announcement? Raise your hand then!"  

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"See?" she continued. "Then why do we make such a fuss out of it? It's all giant lies. He keeps lying to us all this time, when he says stuff like "I'll make the decision soon", "I'll pay attention to what people think of it". It's all lies. He has made this decision long ago. Years ago. Think of this, those people who will vote for the first time in 2018, all the young citizens who are 18 years old, they were born in 2000, when Putin was the president already! Sadly, there's a chance that when they die, Putin will still remain a President."

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Mrs. Sobchak opened her campaign office and later visited the city's most troublesome areas to see what solutions she could offer to solve the problem of people living in the dangerously outdated building under threat of collapse.

Mr. Navalny, Russia's only long-standing opposition politician, visited Novgorod two weeks ago and spoke in front of a rally of 2,000 people.

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Commenting Putin's announcement, Navalny took it to his twitter account to say that "people in Novgorod don't support Putin." He later published a brief statement on his official website, saying that the whole situation with Putin's attempt to occupy the office for the fourth time is "nauseous, treacherous and hypocritical". "What sort of comedy is he staging in front of the whole country watching," Navalny wondered with irony to his tone and added: "Don't let this scammer fool you again!" 

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While Putin's re-election used to be nearly guaranteed, the World Olympic Committee yesterday's decision to ban Russia's team from the 2018 Olympics will certainly fuel some more stance against "the West" and give even more votes to Putin. However, his campaign and his program are still to unfold. "Will he stop the Ukraine war? Will he initiate the economic reforms? Will he ease taxes?" are the questions on his voter's mind. The social media, meanwhile, are dragging Putin to the pits of hell, and it's the Diane Warren talking to Larry King and saying that Oscar went to "that Sam Smith song from James Bond than nobody really heard." level of dragging. 

Later this week, I'll post a report to try and tell you why Russia got a leader like this.  

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Edited by bumblebee
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JustinTrudeau   Paws Up 1,670
JustinTrudeau
9 hours ago, bumblebee said:

Indeed, the ten-year anniversary celebration of Rostec is scheduled for tomorrow, and President Putin is among the guests of the party, as well as Mr. Chemezov. According to those speculations Putin was meant to endorse Chemezov's bid for presidency at the event. It turns out the rumours were false. 

Anyway, neither Chemezov nor Medvedev have managed to convince the President to step down, and Putin seemed firm in his intention to run for the top office for the fourth time. His first two terms lasted from 2000 to 2008, and he was elected for the third time in 2012.

Wait, I may be rusty in reading Russian with latin letters, but is his last name literally means "bear" or it's just a name? :air: 

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I fell down the stairs once as an actor.

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bumblebee   Paws Up 2,525
bumblebee
3 hours ago, JustinTrudeau said:

Wait, I may be rusty in reading Russian with latin letters, but is his last name literally means "bear" or it's just a name? :air: 

It does :air: 

Medved' means bear in Russian :air:

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bumblebee   Paws Up 2,525
bumblebee

In this week's episode of @bumblebee Russia election watch, we'd try to understand deeper stuff behind Putin's fourth bid for presidency. Last week, I briefly described the changes Putin forced onto the Russian political system. The summary would be the following: 

he gained control over the Upper House of Parliament. That was the only time he really changed the Constitution. The law that was passed by both Houses of the Parliament allowed the President to appoint members of the Upper House the way the Queen in the UK appoints members of the House of Lords;

he created his own party, which was governed by his close allies and friends. At the peak of Putin's popularity, the party kept winning the elections to the Lower House, having more than 60% of the seats;

he introduced a lot of new electoral laws which were obviously passed by the Parliament. The laws aimed at making the elections uninteresting, disappealing and predictable and, in other words, too boring to participate. He raised the bar for the parties to enter Parliament (from 5% to 7%), he dispelled the requirement of the miminum turnout nesessary to proclaim the elections legitimate, and he reformed the Lower House elections by canceling the election districts and switching to the system where the Lower House seats were awarded proportionally to the number of the nationwide votes the party recieved. Oh, and he canceled the gubernatoral elections, too. 

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Now this week, I'll try to explain why Russia got under his reign. Now, I do understand rather well that whenever somebody attempts to look into the processes that involve dozens of million of people, there's bound to be generalization to a certain extent, but I'll try to avoid it by marking all the dominating and opposing points of view.

So get into the time travel machine and go back to September of 1998. Somewhere in New York, Lady Gaga reads her prayers in her Catholic school, envisioning how she'd be dry humping high-heeled gheys in her Steven Klein-directed video. Russia in the meantime, is in chaos because of the August 1998 financial crisis.
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So what happened? Basically, Russian currency, rouble, crashed. Before August 1998 it used to be 5 roubles per 1 US dollar. When the financial crisis started, Russian currency was falling rapidly and in September 1998 it was already 20 rubles per 1 US dollar. Needless to explain, that all the imported goods' prices skyrocketed faster than we could say Ferrari.

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The inflation was monstrous. The prices were growing every single day, but dem coins could not catch up. And this crisis touched everybody in the country, because the prices were growing all over the place, in every shop and every street in all the cities. People were clueless: like how am I going to go shopping if the prices are growing but my wage is not?

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To make the matters worse, Russian economy was in ha Witness era, if you pay attention to the graph. From the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, when Russia became an independent state, to 1998, it was a race and everybody was wondering when we'd finally hit the freakin bottom.

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The August 1998 financial crisis was more than just a financial crisis. A very large group of Russian population felt as though the contry had arrived at the Boulevard of Broken Dreams. We were working under the guidance of IMF, executing the market reforms and privatizing the government-owned companies, we had a real democracy with division of power and with one of the most competitive Parliaments in Europe elected in 1993: 

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Yet nothing was working, for some reasons, or at least so it seemed to many people. The fact that economy was sinking fast was indisputable, it was something everybody agreed upon, except for the government. 

It 1995 Parliament elections, the Communists served a:

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moment when they won the Parliament elections. They were trying to exploit people's disappointement with the market reforms. It was not an easy thing, because even though most of people agreed that the level of life was dropping, many people knew it was inevitable, the understood it was a part of the painful transition from the Soviet economy to the market economy, and many people didn't buy into Communists' bullshit when they would pay tribute to USSR 'cause all people wanted to do was get high by the beach, dance, rave and go to big cities and explore the wild life of sexual liberties and new job opportunities. Yet the Communists won in 1995: 

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Furthermore, the Communist candidate nearly dethroned Yeltsin, Russian ruling president and an outspoken anti-communist, in the 1996 Presidential election, winning 40.7% of votes. Following the 1998 financial crisis, the Communist party forged a coalition in the Parliament and headlined the government. Yeltsin's metacritic score dropped to 5%, and he, an outspoken anti-communist President, ended up with a Communist Prime Minister.

With all that in mind, it seemed clear to everybody that a Communist candidate would win the 2000 Presidential elections. The IMF programs had failed in Russia. The transition to the market economy had led to collapse, and people saw no way out of it. Many of those who, back in 1996, had urged other voters to chill and to accept the fact that the transition to market could never be painless, shifted their views. In 1998, Russia was as close to going back to USSR and communism as ever.

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However, going back to the old ways meant that the rich businessmen's property and assets would be nationalized, and the so-called @FATCAT s were not happy with it. They meant to find a way to stop a Communist candidate from winning the elections. And they started working.

They contacted Mr. Voloshin, the Chief of President's Yeltsin Administration and said that something had to be done about 2000. They said that the elections were just two years away and that they better start promoting the new anti-communist candidate the way Gaga promoted Million Reasons. Despite Yeltsin's strained relationship with some of the country's top businessmen, there was something they had in common: they all loathed communism.

After that, they did everything rather easily. They conducted a survey and found out the image of the most desired President. People wanted young, energetic man with a Russian name, somebody tough and with experience of police/military/intelligence service. The businessmen and Voloshin made a shortlist and started interviewing people. They picked Putin for the reason only Mr. Voloshin knew.

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The next move was simple: they had to somehow make Putin the Prime Minister, but with the Parliament under Communist's control it was, obviously, impossible. So they had to wait for the 1999 Parliament elections and to pour as much money into the anti-communist parties' campaigns as they could. They really didn't care what parties the money went to, all they wanted was for the anti-communist parties to gain as many seats as possible. And it worked: 

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The communists (red) lost dem seats compared to 1995. 

In 1999, Putin became Prime Minister, leaving his previous job as the chief of Russia's Federal Security Service. His rating were miserably low, though, and it was rising too slowly to get in shape for the 2000 Presidential election. That's when Mr. Voloshin thought of a delightful plan. He convinced President Yeltsin to resign on the New Year's Eve, during his congratulations speech to millions of Russians, and introduce Putin as the candidate he endorsed.

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This moment shocked the nation. The tradition of meeting the New Year home with family and in front of the TV screen is rather strong in the country, and it was even stronger in 1999. So people were standing, wanting to smoke a pair of lights and drink champagne when Yeltsin announced that he was resigning from the office. He asked people's forgiveness for all the dreams that couldn't come true because of the way he misconducted some policies, and saif goodbye. There had hardly ever been such a silent New Year Eve in the country.

Putin's congratulation speech followed. He emerged as a man who was ready to rise to the position of the top authority and who was not afraid of the responsibility. He said he would run for the top office in 2000, and he did. Putin became the winner with the lowest popular vote of all the three presidential elections that had taken place in Russia (1991, 1996, 2000), winning 39.7 million in popular vote and 53% of the total votes cast.

The 1990s era ended, leaving the turmoil of economic resession behind. Nowdays, there is a widespread myth about Russia of the 1990s: it is portrayed as a gloomy and sinister world where big criminal bosses have control over politicians and local policemen, where gang wars are fought all over the country, where people are not paid wages and elders do not receive pensions, where the country was on the verge of collapse into smaller states.

The crime rate was extremely high and some of the loudest public murders and assasinations happened in the 1990s indeed. It was basically because all the fabrics and industrial property that used to belong to the government during Soviet era was ordered to be made private property, and people were fighting like hell to tear a juicy piece of it. The economy was falling down, nobody can argue with that.

However, it was also the era of the birth of the big city culture, as hundreds of thousands of people rushed to Moscow to chase their dreams, it was the dawn of the media industry, the journalism and the independent press. The culture was finally free from the grip of the Soviet censorship, and Russia became open to the whole world.

That is why Putin won the 2000 election. He appealed to both groups of the voters. Those who focused on the bright side of the 1990s voted for him because they wanted to escape going back to the Soviet Union and Putin was anti-communist.

People who were frustrated with the 1990s and the transition to the market economy favored Putin because they had hopes he'd turn the economy to the growth and raise the quality of life.

SUMMARY:

This is the first thing we can understand about Putin's modern supporters. His first huge electoral group are those who think that Putin saved Russia from the certain downfall. If you look at the economy's graph, during his first two terms the economy rebounced and by 2008 the GDP was restored to the 1991 level, and people were not economically educated enough to understand it was more about the oil pices and administration than about Putin's personal contribution. But he did have a say in the ecomomic policy and obviously determined the general course, and that's why some people link the country's economic revival with his name and still thank him for saving the country from collapse. 

So now you know how and why he took the office. Next week, we'll examine Putin's first assaults on the Civil Society in Russia and the reactions that followed in 2002-2006.

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Edited by bumblebee
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DelusionalGaga   Paws Up 12,570
DelusionalGaga
On 4.12.2017 at 1:24 AM, bumblebee said:

Also, Mrs. Ksenia Sobchak, the daughter of Putin's main political mentor, said she would run and is already campaigning against Putin. 

What? Is this true? I read recently that she supports Navalny but I didn't know she's planning to run herself :giveup:

Edited by DelusionalGaga
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bumblebee   Paws Up 2,525
bumblebee
9 minutes ago, DelusionalGaga said:

What? Is this true? I read recently that she suports Navalny but I didn't know she's planning to run herself :giveup:

She is currently opening campaign offices all over the country to gather the required amount of signatures to ensure she is registered as a candidate. She said that if Navalny is registered, she'd call her campaign off and support him instead, but Navalny is very unlikely to be registered as a candidate - although it's not 100% clear now :giveup:

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BlaqJezus   Paws Up 1,023
BlaqJezus
On 12/3/2017 at 6:55 PM, bumblebee said:

:air:

they are nothing alike 

:air:

I think the reason they thought so, was because of the Sarah Paulson look from season two of American Horror Story where she is driving away in the back of the car...the outfits are really similar haha

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bumblebee   Paws Up 2,525
bumblebee
1 minute ago, BlaqJezus said:

I think the reason they thought so, was because of the Sarah Paulson look from season two of American Horror Story where she is driving away in the back of the car...the outfits are really similar haha

yeah, when she escaped the asylum ! 

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 August Blue   Paws Up 8,138
August Blue

Cant naval y and this girl both run and form a coalition? 

Anyway, even if, putin will still rig the election :air: 

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bumblebee   Paws Up 2,525
bumblebee
6 minutes ago, August Blue said:

Cant naval y and this girl both run and form a coalition? 

Anyway, even if, putin will still rig the election :air: 

Well, Navalny is a rather well known opposition leader who has been a real politician since 2012. He ran for the mayor of Moscow office and won 27% of votes. For his 2018 bid, he organized a platform with heavy involvement of volunteers and managed to create a movement, spending a lot of energy on that. 

Mrs. Sobchak is a journalist, and, since 2012, an outspoken critic of Putin despite having close family ties with him. She announced her bid in a YouTube video and Navalny feels that it would not be fair to just hand his platform over to her (there is a big chance he is not going to be admitted to the registration because of his record of conviction for financial crimes).

As for rigging the elections, so far it seems it'll be quite the contrary. There are numerous leaks from thousands regional and rural  election committees, they all report, in varying words, that they received "instructions" from the Administration of the President that the elections must be held according to all the standards of law. The election committee members are threatened that they will be fired and never hired for a government office again if they attempt to rig the elections in Putin's favor. It seems Putin doesn't want to give the western media and the domestic opposition the delight to expose the rigged elections. He is quite sure of his victory to rig them this time, it seems. 

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 August Blue   Paws Up 8,138
August Blue
2 minutes ago, bumblebee said:

Well, Navalny is a rather well known opposition leader who has been a real politician since 2012. He ran for the mayor of Moscow office and won 27% of votes. For his 2018 bid, he organized a platform with heavy involvement of volunteers and managed to create a movement, spending a lot of energy on that. 

Mrs. Sobchak is a journalist, and, since 2012, an outspoken critic of Putin despite having close family ties with him. She announced her bid in a YouTube video and Navalny feels that it would not be fair to just hand his platform over to her (there is a big chance he is not going to be admitted to the registration because of his record of conviction for financial crimes).

As for rigging the elections, so far it seems it'll be quite the contrary. There are numerous leaks from thousands regional and rural  election committees, they all report, in varying words, that they received "instructions" from the Administration of the President that the elections must be held according to all the standards of law. The election committee members are threatened that they will be fired and never hired for a government office again if they attempt to rig the elections in Putin's favor. It seems Putin doesn't want to give the western media and the domestic opposition the delight to expose the rigged elections. He is quite sure of his victory to rig them this time, it seems. 

Hmm I understand..

He is sure he will win? Does the majority of russians really support him? :air: 

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bumblebee   Paws Up 2,525
bumblebee
1 minute ago, August Blue said:

Hmm I understand..

He is sure he will win? Does the majority of russians really support him? :air: 

Well the fact that he doesn't plan to rig the results doesn't mean the elections are fair. If Navalny is not admitted to registration, it will mean that the only real deal opposition leader will not be permitted to compete against Putin and he'll face mostly @Irrelevant contenders. 

As for his support, the government owned survey company has recently conducted a poll to measure his electoral appeal. He can count on about 32-36 million votes. The total number of registered voters is about 110 million, so his real approval rating is like 30%.

However, of those 110 million voters, only 52 million people showed up at the polling stations last year for the Parliamentary elections. If 52 million people come to the polling stations next year and he gets 32 million votes, it will mean 62% :air:

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 August Blue   Paws Up 8,138
August Blue
3 minutes ago, bumblebee said:

Well the fact that he doesn't plan to rig the results doesn't mean the elections are fair. If Navalny is not admitted to registration, it will mean that the only real deal opposition leader will not be permitted to compete against Putin and he'll face mostly @Irrelevant contenders. 

As for his support, the government owned survey company has recently conducted a poll to measure his electoral appeal. He can count on about 32-36 million votes. The total number of registered voters is about 110 million, so his real approval rating is like 30%.

However, of those 110 million voters, only 52 million people showed up at the polling stations last year for the Parliamentary elections. If 52 million people come to the polling stations next year and he gets 32 million votes, it will mean 62% :air:

Thanks for explaining so clearly :hug: 

I really hope things change for the best for you and your country. I find putin a very evil person :madge: 

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