Willy Wonka 4 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Today, we're going to be learning about a famous Latin phrase: "cum hoc ergo propter hoc", which translates to "with this, therefore because of this". This is a logical fallacy. Why? Because correlation does not imply causation. Shall we apply this to a situation? Okay. "When Gaga started struggling commercially, a lot of fans left the fanbase. Therefore, the fans left because Gaga was struggling commercially." THIS IS A LOGICAL FALLACY. Correlation does not imply causation. Just because the events happened at the same time does NOT mean that one caused the other. So, what could the cause be? There could be a third variable that causes BOTH events, which is referred to as a lurking variable. Just like the meaning of ARTPOP, a lurking variable could be literally anything: not liking Gaga's hair, not identifying with the music, not liking the aesthetic of the era, not liking Gaga's social media activity, preferring a different genre, etc. In conclusion, there's a famous example of this logical fallacy. "As ice cream consumption goes up, murder rates go up. Therefore, ice cream consumption causes murder." As we've learned, correlation does not imply causation. There is a lurking variable in this relationship: hot weather. As the temperature raises, both ice cream consumption AND murder rates raise as well. And that was the Latin phrase of the day. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nemo 3,962 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Yeah, definitely the hair. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redstreak 6,651 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 But imply does not mean exclude. It could very well be a correlation, just can't be said definitively. Take a moment to think of just flexibility, love, and trust~ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
referee 12 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 A lesson in logic by a user named Willy Wonka. Ok. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Wonka 4 Posted April 21, 2014 Author Share Posted April 21, 2014 But imply does not mean exclude. It could very well be a correlation, just can't be said definitively. Absolutely! Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVDALIZA 1,274 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 This reminds me of my Philosophy classes operating from another world Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redstreak 6,651 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Absolutely! If anything the two are circular imo. While I'm sure it's not the only reason, I would bet that the lack of commercial success, more due to the fact that it happened so quickly and drastically from such a high point, was one of the biggest crushing blows. and then once the fans started leaving, there was less people to support the artistry, and with even less success, it caused more to leave and so on so forth. The ones here now are truly the ones with faith I suppose. That or the leaving process has just slowed down a bit. Take a moment to think of just flexibility, love, and trust~ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
mic 1,384 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 It's all about small details that make this era not appealing. And surprisingly - I think that ppl are very sensitive to details. Society is stupid but we can't deny they really know how to find some imperfections. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gagz 2,572 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 cum NSFW tag please :emma: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Wonka 4 Posted April 21, 2014 Author Share Posted April 21, 2014 If anything the two are circular imo. While I'm sure it's not the only reason, I would bet that the lack of commercial success, more due to the fact that it happened so quickly and drastically from such a high point, was one of the biggest crushing blows. and then once the fans started leaving, there was less people to support the artistry, and with even less success, it caused more to leave and so on so forth. The ones here now are truly the ones with faith I suppose. That or the leaving process has just slowed down a bit. I don't see why people find it so hard to believe that maybe some fans left for the SAME reason that she hasn't had the same commercial success. Maybe the GP just said "hmm I'm not feeling the music" and the fans who left were like "hmm I'm not feeling the music". I don't know why it's assumed that tons of fans left SOLELY due to the lack of commercial success. What was driving the lack of commercial success? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redstreak 6,651 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I don't see why people find it so hard to believe that maybe some fans left for the SAME reason that she hasn't had the same commercial success. Maybe the GP just said "hmm I'm not feeling the music" and the fans who left were like "hmm I'm not feeling the music". I don't know why it's assumed that tons of fans left SOLELY due to the lack of commercial success. What was driving the lack of commercial success? Well the GP are always the driving force behind success, it's just human nature to follow the pack. "well if they don' think it's in, then I guess I don't think it's in either." I honestly believe it was the aesthetic and image that began the turn around, not the music. Whenever there's any negativity, it's always about her character and the way she handles herself, hardly the music. But with a bias about her looks and image "she's too gay" already in place, who's going to give the music a fair shot? The GP left because of her aesthetic, fans left because she was no longer the "it girl." Take a moment to think of just flexibility, love, and trust~ Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juanjo 1,201 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Lack of promotion and poor management would be the lurking variable here. Stop freaking out, Gaga's not over. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LilVenusian 579 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Yas, Educate these uncultured lil swines with this much needed lesson in logic! It amazes me that people can form such strong opinions without even grasping the basics of logical form. Looking at gaga's decline logically it’s probably a combination of complex factors that proceeded on after another. Her increased “gay friendly†image> more experimental imagery in general> and now more adventurous out there music > which naturally leads to the conclusion that she’s simply lost a lot of her early wide appeal and hence dropped in sales. And then there’s all the behind the scenes stuff that we don’t even see, e.g her relationship with her management and record label. People who come up with simplistic conclusions like that are just too lazy to build up a proper logical argument. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Wonka 4 Posted April 21, 2014 Author Share Posted April 21, 2014 Yas, Educate these uncultured lil swines with this much needed lesson in logic! It amazes me that people can form such strong opinions without even grasping the basics of logical form. Looking at gaga's decline logically it’s probably a combination of complex factors that proceeded on after another. Her increased “gay friendly†image> more experimental imagery in general> and now more adventurous out there music > which naturally leads to the conclusion that she’s simply lost a lot of her early wide appeal and hence dropped in sales. And then there’s all the behind the scenes stuff that we don’t even see, e.g her relationship with her management and record label. People who come up with simplistic conclusions like that are just too lazy to build up a proper logical argument. yessssss i'm not alone Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronk 14,066 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Lack of promotion and poor management would be the lurking variable here. Stop freaking out, Gaga's not over. This. With that variable being resolved, Gaga will be fine. I live outside the space time continuum. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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